The Schilling Dilemma

Curt has decided not to retire at the end of the 2007 season, which makes things pretty stinkin’ interesting.  As Seth Mnookin notes, it is a scenario quite similar to Pedro’s ‘demand’ to negotiate before the season began, or else.  On the positive side, he doesn’t want a raise.  He’s willing to take $13 million, which in the current market is a bargain.  Pitchers who lack the determination and skill of Curt are getting more.

But the Red Sox have a problem… they have a growing number of young pitchers who may be ready for the big leagues in 2008.  Of course, you can never be sure if a young pitcher will become what you think he will.  But here is the cast of characters the Red Sox management needs to think about.

1. Papelbon.  He has tons of promise, and a very competitive nature (like, gasp, Clemens and Schilling).  As a closer you don’t need as many pitches to get guys out.  But to go through the line up 3-4 times in a game, you need to be able to throw 3-4 different pitches with good control.  You can’t be Rivera, and expect to get guys out with essentially one pitch (even if it is a REALLY good pitch).

2. Beckett.  He has some great stuff, but last season was maddeningly inconsistent.  If he makes the adjustment to the AL and mixes them up better, he could fulfill the promise and be a top of the line starter for quite some time.

3. Dice-K.  The only question seems to be if he can adjust to being in a 5-man rotation instead of a 6-man rotation.  He’s got plenty of pitches to get guys out with.  And he certainly seems dedicated.

4. Wakefield.  A well-earned favorite of the fans moving toward the end of a career.  But as a knuckle baller, he can pitch for quite some time if he wants to.

5. Jon Lester.  He has recovered from his chemo and is already in Ft. Myers working out.  His ERA was high, and he had a tendency to throw lots of pitches early.  But with all the guys he let on base, he was able to buckle down.  Now, if he can learn to be more efficient he can become a very good pitcher.  Oh, and he’s only 23.

That makes 6 guys (including Schilling), not including the recovering Matt Clement, who could start THIS year.  Now to the hot prospects.

6. Clay Buckholz.  He was Portland’s best starter last year, and has moved through the organization quickly.  He is projected to start in Pawtucket in 2007.  If he continues to develop at this rate, he’ll be very ready for the big leagues in 2008.  He’s 22 and has 4 good pitches.  Management is very high on him.

7. Daniel Bard.  He was drafted last year and shows tons of promise.  He’s got a smooth as butter delivery and was throwing in the high 90’s after getting his signing bonus.  He needs to work on his secondary pitches, but could be MLB ready in a few years.

This doesn’t include the other guys they’ve got who started some games last season (Gabbard, Tavarez, Snyder etc).  That means they have plenty of guys “just in case”.

So… do the Red Sox sign huge fan favorite Schilling to an extension at a great price, or bank on at least one of the prospects blossoming?  Quite the dilemma to be sure.  Schilling would be a #1 starter on most teams last year.  This off season he was extra-focused in continuing to comeback from the infamous injury.  Theo, John Henry and co have lots to ponder before pitchers and catchers report in 2 weeks.  Glad I’m not them.