Eric Wilbur tries to weigh the risk vs. reward for the Red Sox and Yankees pursuing Johan Santana. He mentions that the last time such a dominating pitcher was available (because his team couldn’t re-sign him) was when Pedro was traded to the Red Sox from the Expos. He was traded for Carl Pavano (who ironically has been a complete washout after helping defeat them in the 2003 World Series) and Tony Armas Jr.. They were top prospects in the Red Sox system. Pedro went on to dominate the American League until leaving after the Red Sox 2004 World Series. Those 2 guys never really delivered on the potential, primarily due to injury (pitching prospects are riskier than position players).
Whichever team gets Santana will have to surrender some top prospects. Those prospects may never pan out, like Armas- or they could be the next Jeff Bagwell or Hanley Ramirez. Santana could be the left-handed Pedro or…
“His value isn’t what it was after 2006. By his enormous standards, he had a substandard 2007 season, going 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA. He gave up 33 home runs, nine more than his previous career high, and scouts have mentioned subtle warning signs, such as his reluctance to throw his slider. “In any Santana trade, the Twins might want an established star, such as Robinson Cano or Jose Reyes, along with multiple prospects. But that is a pipe dream.” (Joe Christensen of the Minnesota Star-Tribune)
Maybe the winner of the Santana sweepstakes won’t get the guy they thought they would. Or he could have just had an off-year.
What is interesting to me is that the A’s may make Dan Haren (not to be confused with Rich Harden) available. Santana was 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA. Haren was 15-9 with a 3.09 ERA. He’s 3 years younger and is set to make $16.25 million in the next 3 years compared to Santana making about $14 million next year with demands for an extension possibly exceeding $20 million per year.
Haren’s availability in trade would drive down the price for Santana. He would be a much more affordable premier pitcher. It’s enough to drive a GM to drink. Fortunately for the Twins, the A’s haven’t openly shopped Haren- but if they do you have to think Theo would be more interested in getting Haren. Think of these potential staffs:
Red Sox: Beckett, Haren/Santana, Dice-K, Schilling, Wakefield with either Lester or Buchholz ready to step in when Schilling retires.
Yankees: Santana/Haren, Wang, Mussina, Pettite (?), Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlin
You know each team would have to give up one pitching prospect, at least, to get one of these guys. And at least one position player. If I have to give up say Lester and Moss/Lowrie, I’d want the guy who gives me more bang for my buck- Haren. But is he available? If I’m Theo, I’m checking in with Billy Beane early and often.
So… what’s a GM to do?
Here are the Twins’ requests for Santana (according to SI)-
Red Sox- Ellsbury and either Lester or Buchholz.
Yankees- Melky Cabrera and 3 young players one of which would be Chamberlin, Hughes or Kennedy.
As usual, you make many salient points, my friend.
For the Yanks the pitching situation, while not quite desperate, is more crucial than for the Sox, whose current rotation is much better than the Yanks’. (Consider their bad fortune in recent years with Igawa, Pavano, Randy Johnson, and even the 2007 version of the Rocket, not to mention Wang’s meltdown in the Cleveland series). The Yanks had better land either Santana or Haren or their chances of advancing in the playoffs will be dim, no matter the strength of their lineup or – best case scenario – the acumen of their new manager. Especially if either one or both stay in the AL. Will be very interesting to see how all of this shakes out in the coming days.
Yes, Hank needs to strengthen the Yanks’ rotation. Seems like Cashman has once again been pushed aside by a Steinbrenner.
You’ve gotten some really good pitching prospects. But, as noted, they are riskier so it makes sense to pursue a veteran pitcher with a track record, but not a billion innings on his arm like Randy or Roger.