Considering the Offseason So Far

Since the winter meetings start next week, it is time to talk about some baseball (mostly Red Sox though).

Some of the best off season news is that Joe Morgan was non-tendered by ESPN.  I didn’t mind Jon Miller, but Morgan drove me crazy.  He was a Hall of Fame player, but not a good color man.  They will replaced by the team of Orel Hershiser, Bobby Valentine and Dan Shulman.  Not too wild about Bobby, but Orel provides some great insight in my opinion.

AP Michael Dwyer

I was a bit surprised by the whole Victor Martinez thing.  Not that he left, but some of the details of his departure.  While he was in Boston we occasionally read how he was a catcher- he wanted to catch.  He was willing to play a little firstbase or DH, but he viewed himself as a catcher.  Victor is an elite hitter as a catcher, but only very good as a DH or a first baseman (and a below par fielder).  When you consider the guy who won the Silver Slugger award at the position last year (on a 1 year deal) made $9 million, you see that the price for elite DH’s is not quite as high as elite catchers.  And that is the catch- the Red Sox didn’t want to pay him like an elite catcher when he had shifted to first base or DH full-time.  Position does matter.

Their experience with ‘Tek’s swift offensive decline (and Victor, his conditioning is legendary so it wasn’t that he didn’t take care of his body), left a bad taste in their mouth.  That and the Mike Lowell contract.  They don’t want old guys gone bad being paid big bucks.  They can’t print money like the Yankees can (especially with Fenway no longer being a HOT ticket and NESN ratings plummeting).

During the press conference to announce V-Mart’s good-sized contract it was announced that he was going to back up their catcher and spend most of his time at DH and 1st base.  Huh?  I felt like I got the old switcheroo.  But they are paying him like he’s a elite catcher.  He doesn’t have the thump you want from a DH or 1st baseman.  I will miss his ability to excel against lefties, but I think the Red Sox made a good move.  He was also a great club house guy, who worked well with some of the pitchers (Clay) but struggled with others (is Beckett’s decline coincidental?).  His probable replacement didn’t hit as well, but did a good job with the pitchers.  All starters went into the 7th (and with that bullpen, it was a huge deal).  So the Sox most likely got a defensive upgrade.  Victor worked hard, and showed some improvement but he’s over 30 and his defensive skills won’t drastically improve.  When you have to face the Rays 19 times, and face the possibility of facing the Rangers in the playoffs- you have to throw people out!

AP Photo Jeff Roberson

Of course, now there is talk of the Red Sox picking up Russell Martin via free agency, or swinging a trade with the Dodger for him.  He has been hampered by injury the last few years, but might make a good platoon with Salty. [Update: they have just re-signed, not resigned, Jason Varitek.]

I’ve posted before on the Crawford-Werth debate. Sox officials met with Crawford yesterday.  They plan to meet with Scott Boras (hit the Darth Vader music) about Werth and Beltre before the Winter Meetings.  My BIG concern (really big concern) is the length of contracts mentioned thus far.  Far too long.  I suspect the Red Sox will be quite resistant to commit to anyone that long, especially anyone over 30.

Crawford is younger than Werth, but his game is built on speed.  Thus far his professional career has been played at the Trop which is hard on knees.  Crawford can’t control that with conditioning.  He’s an outfielder.  He doesn’t have the power to move to DH the last few years (unless he hits the PEDs), and a $20 million DH at that!  Werth has the power to move over to DH if need be, but 5 years is a long time to commit to Werth, though he can head to RF in 2012 when Drew (mostly likely) retires.  He has the arm to play all 3 positions out there.  Crawford, not so much.  He’s pretty much a left fielder.  Werth is far more versatile, which was we saw last year is a huge advantage.

Getty Images Christian Peterson

Now Sox fans are all excited about the Upton option.  Not B.J., the frustrating CF for the Rays, but Justin- the frustrating OF for the D’Backs.  The guy has tons of potential.  He’s not the baserunner that Ellsbury is, but he has more power than Jacoby has displayed thus far (though he may add some this season).

I’m not sure pretty sure that Upton is not a big enough upgrade over Ellsbury to justify adding Bard to that swap.  Ellsbury is a winner, in my book.  He seems to be on winning teams (college world series, MLB world series).  That is not accidental.  He’s a difference maker.  Upton?  No such track record.  Yes, an intangible for all the stat geeks to choke on!  But you don’t need a whole OF that bats lefty (like Crawford, Ellsbury and Drew).  Upton hits righty, getting more power against right handers but on base more against left handers.

Speaking of the D’Backs- our old frustrating friend Wily Mo Pena signed a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training.  I could see the previous GM doing this, but Kevin Towers?  And there is no DH in the NL.  I could see an AL team taking a risk on him for his power, but no one wants his fielding.

The Yankees are picking an odd time to show fiscal restraint.  If it were any other team, their moves would make sense.  But we’re talking the Yankees here!  If any other team asked a (former) elite player to check the market to discover their true value, it would make sense.  But not the Yankees.  After all, these are the guys who signed A-Fraud to a huge contract even though there was NO competition for his services.  But … George is dead.  The Sports Guy, on his podcast, compared Hank and Hal to Sonny and Fredo Corleone.  Hal is a bean counter, and so this sort of makes sense.  $15 million is WAY too much for Derek Jeter at this point of his career.  But the Yankees can afford it.  Bill Simmons’ friend Jack-O fears the Sox will sign him.  That is MY fear, that the Yankees will stick the Sox with an old, worn out Jeter rather than bid against the Sox.

The Winter Meetings are upon us, and the Red Sox have (publicly) done NOTHING.  Theo likes to work out of the spotlight, but they’ve made no positive moves beyond waiver pick ups and minor trades.  They let Martinez go (got a good draft pick), and the other FA catchers have been disappearing faster than the pancakes at a Father-Son breakfast.  The Tigers have been signing everyone under the sun.  They’re sort of like drunk businessmen on a spending spree while away on business.  They’ve tried this before, and it failed miserably.  That is not how the Red Sox build teams- draft well, make some trades, take a few risks with guys no one wants (Ortiz, Millar, Mueller) and a couple of FAs.  But they really don’t like paying guys on the tail end of their careers (which is what happens with the way the CBA is set up in MLB).  With this draft the last before the draft structure changes, they are content to amass draft picks (has Bill Belichik done a mind meld with Theo?).

Should they re-sign Beltre?  I go back and forth.  Will he end up like the last 2 3rd baseman before him- nearly crippled by the end of his contract (though both were beloved by Sox fans, and for good reason)?  No idea.  His offense this past year was tremendous.  He seems to be built for Fenway, so while I expect a dip I don’t expect a huge dip (like when he was with Seattle in that abyss called a park).  I have no strong feelings on this.  V-Mart won’t be around to rub his head, so he may want to return.  He gives us a bat we sorely against the lefties that are being stockpiled in the AL East (and the Rangers).  If the Sox want to compete they need a few guys who hit lefties (Mike Cameron does, if he stays healthy).  One of those just went to Detroit.  So Beltre gives you both defense and a bat.

AP Photo Eric Risberg

But … what about Adrian Gonzalez?  He is the holy grail of Sox fans (they shifted to him after Mar-Tex signed with the Evil Empire).  While not as good a first baseman as Youk, he’s still solid and crushes he ball.  While left handed, he hits lefties well.  Last year, he hit them better than righties.  Perhaps he, Youk and Beltre make a 3-headed monster rotating through the corner spots and DH so they get rest.  But AGon knows that there is money to be had in Boston, as well as a chance to win.  The Yankees have a first baseman and a DH, so they can’t be in the running for AGon (right?).  But would a Beltre signing rule out the hot pursuit of AGon?  A very good question.

Lastly, Theo needs to start building a bullpen around Bard and Papelbon.  They made a start with some waiver guys like Buchholz and Miller, as well as tendering Atchinson.  But they need some depth and a lefty specialist.  This was just as much their Achilles’ Heel as the injuries last year.  A decent bullpen and they won enough games to challenge the Yankees and Rays for the division (that and a catcher who could hit while Martinez was hurt).  You have to be able to seal those victories.