This was not the collapse some of the economists have been predicting. But it felt as devastating. The team that had the best record in May-August utterly fell apart. They went from leading the division to not making the playoffs in the course of a month.
There are plenty of people pointing fingers. I’ve read some ridiculous statements. I’m going to try and put all this together so it makes sense- not sensationalistic headlines.
Issues of payroll are utterly irrelevant. I don’t care how much a guy is being paid, if he’s hurt he can’t help the team. So the size of the Red Sox payroll is ultimately irrelevant in this discussion. You also can’t look at the roster on paper. You have to see the roster that can actually suit up.
I refuse to point the finger at Theo or Francona. At the trade deadline the Sox were in an enviable position. People were largely singing their praises. Only hindsight is 20/20, so don’t blame them for not having the gift of prophecy.
The seeds of the collapse were sown in Spring Training with Felix Doubront showing up out of shape. The team had high hopes for him, and he was positioned to be the spot starter like Lester and Buchholz had been before him. His job was to be ready. He wasn’t, and suffered a number of injuries. The depth they had at pitching took its first hit. And a big hit since they would be forced to rely on the inconsistent Miller and overmatched Weiland. This would cost them critical games.
It's lonely when you lose
Ryan Kalish’s injury was also pretty big. Reddick was the guy who ended up filling in for the injured Drew. He’s streaky, the book says, and he proved it. He was on fire when he came up. But down the stretch he struggled horribly. A healthy Kalish, the heir apparent to right field before the season, would have made a big difference. But it was not to be (and THAT, my friends, is part of what A-Gon was trying to say).
Diva-K’s injury seemed like a boon at first. He was horrible! But if his arm wasn’t messed up, he would’ve been better. Instead we got a loveable but too old Wakefield and his quest for 200 wins. It became a source of instability in the rotation. Combine that with John (S)lackey’s ever deteriorating performance and the 4th and 5th spots on the rotation gave the Sox next to nothing. Not even innings since no one when deep into games.
The loss of Clay Buchholz was devastating, particularly in light of what was going on in the 4th and 5th spot. Their pitching depth was vanishing. Theo can’t anticipate that. You can’t hide major league talent in AAA because they don’t want to be in AAA. Case in point, Kevin Millwood. He waits a few more weeks and he’s pitching for the Red Sox instead of the Rockies. But he wanted out of AAA. All was well when he was released- but then Beckett and Bedard would go down at the same time. It was like a 8.9 quake from which they would be unable to recover.
It overtaxed the bullpen. No one was going deep into games and the relief pitchers needed relief. Hill had gone down to Tommy John surgery with Diva-K. Jenks was not a bust, he was hurt. There is a difference. But he couldn’t help. Wheeler came up hurt again. But baseball is a marathon- the schedule doesn’t stop and the games still count even if you aren’t playing well or have been flattened by injuries. Even the steady Jon Lester crumbled.
The Red Sox survived Drew’s injury until September. Drew, contrary to many peoples’ opinions, was not a bust. But this year he was horrible. With FAs you often have to sign them for more years than you should. This was that year. Cameron floundered and was released, Kalish was hurt, MacDonald was not the guy he was last year. When Reddick tanked, they were stuck. There were too many errors in the outfield, taxing the pitchers.
Youkilis’ injuries were more devastating. They rotated utilities guys at 3rd. Errors and missed balls mounted up- also taxing the pitchers. He couldn’t protect others in the line up. This is a huge contributing factor that neither Francona nor Theo could fix. Middlebrooks is not ready for prime time yet. You don’t want to start that arbitration clock when he’s not ready. Next year will be a different story. This year it killed them.
I’m not sure if I should point a finger at Curt Young. It was his staff. Mechanical kinks weren’t worked out (Bard!). Guys just didn’t seem prepared. Maybe the pressure of Boston got to him like it did Crawford. Maybe he’ll be better next year, as I anticipate Crawford will be. While I didn’t think Crawford was the best fit for this team- I thought Ellsbury would have a great comeback year, but not as great as it was. But Carl has been a great player for quite some time. He was not a bust- he’s got plenty of time to show us what he’s made of. But the pressure got to him. The expectations got to A-Gon. The schedule IS tougher. That is because people want to see this team play and they don’t want to see the Padres. He handled the pressure of Boston well, but was fatigued by the end of the year (though he STILL hit over .300 in September). He learned 2 lessons this year. Be in better shape and avoid the home run derby! I think both guys will be fine next year.
Do Papi and Papelbon come back? I don’t know. But I do know I’m not excited about having a closer who can lose his arm slot and not find it for a month at a time. Theo needs to pay attention to that! Fair warning, Theo. So I’d try to bring Papelbon back. Unlike the whines of some people, the Sox are not financially crippled. They can pay Ellsbury when it is time because Lackey’s contract will be over and I suspect they won’t sign Youk unless he DHs. Middlebrook is the 3rd baseman of the future for the Red Sox.
I think Lackey has to go. Trade him for Zito- they both need a change of scenery. I don’t know if Slackey blames his soon-to-be-ex-wife for being in Boston but he needs to go. Maybe he’s a great teammate when he’s not on the mound, but he gets on the mound every 5 days. He destroys morale, he’s got to.
With Diva-K gone for most of next season, the Red Sox need another starter. A dependable starter. A tough minded starter. I have no problem with bringing Bedard back, but you know he’ll be injured at some point (or more). Maybe Doubront got the message and he’s ready to contribute next year. Weiland could be better used as a reliever. I’m afraid it is time to say ‘goodbye’ to Wakefield. Right field will be an issue again. Kalish may be healthy, but he missed a year of development. I’m not sure I want Reddick there every day. But they will need to make space for Lavernway. ‘Tek is probably gone so Ryan can catch and DH as a power RH bat.
The bottom line is injuries depleting the depth and putting guys in positions they shouldn’t be in. This extended innings with errors, shortened starts and decimated the pitching staff. And if you don’t have a pitching staff- you’re going no where. I thought we’d learned that already.
Cavman Considers 
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