Hindsight is always 20-20. Not really, as I consider responses to various events in our nation’s recent history. But it is easier to see where you went wrong because you see what went wrong.
Sometimes the warnings were there all along, and you ignored them. I think the Red Sox ignored some warning signs, and made some moves that resulted in their worst season since 1966, or the first full season for which I was alive.
First, they ignored warning signs regarding Carl Crawford’s health. I really like Carl Crawford as a player. I did not see him as a good fit for the Red Sox despite obvious talent. What I couldn’t know since I didn’t see medical reports was the linger issues with his wrist and elbow that were waiting to implode. He missed the beginning of the season after wrist surgery, and he missed the end as his elbow fell apart requiring Tommy John surgery right after being traded away.
This meant that the Red Sox had reserves playing left field most of the season, and when Crawford was in there, he was afraid to throw. They suffered defensively and offensively. It is one of the reasons they had 31 different position players take at bats in 2012.
Second, they ignored the warning signs about Bobby Valentine. I hated the hire. For a few days in Spring Training I thought I might be wrong. But I wasn’t. Soon Bobby was being Bobby, which means making clubhouse issues public, arguing with the media and a host of other distractions that players don’t need. When the injury crisis hit, Bobby wasn’t protecting players but stirring up more stuff.
Additionally, he didn’t get along with this coaching staff. Players got mixed messages. The pitchers ended up with 2 different pitching coaches. It was a dysfunctional mess.
Third, they ignored Daniel Bard’s trouble as a starter in the minor leagues. They thought they could transition him to a starter instead of sliding him into the closer role after Papelbon took the money and ran to Philly. This is significant on a number of fronts. As a starter he flamed out and it got so bad he was sent to the minor leagues. So, instead of getting another starter in the market they had a series of spot starters and guys transitioning from the bullpen. The starting pitching, which was a problem of epic proportions in 2012, was ultimately decimated by this decision.
Because they didn’t use Bard as the closer, they went out and got one in Bailey. The price? Reddick, who would go one to be an All-Star for the A’s (we didn’t have any besides Ortiz) adding power to their line up. He would have remained on the Boston roster as a utility fielder at worst, but could have played right so Ross could fill in for Crawford in left. When they were trotting out guys like Marlon Byrd and Darnell McDonald, they would have been in a much better position putting Reddick out there. This was necessitated by the move of Bard to the rotation.
Fourth, they ignored the signs that Bailey, that closer they picked up, had injury issues. Yes, it was a freak accident but that is par for the course with certain guys (has Ellsbury become one of those guys?). But it resulted in a horrible job at closer by long relief, spot starter Alfredo Aceves. He was moved from his position of strength to a position he ultimately and completely failed in. Not only did 2012 destroy Bard’s self-confidence but it may have ruined Aceves (whom Valentine could not control, unlike Francona).
Fifth, they ignored Adrian Gonzalez’s shoulder problems when they traded for him. He has not been the same since the 2011 All-Star Game, becoming a slow singles hitter. Okay, he gets plenty of doubles. But he’s not paid that kind of money to be Wade Boggs. He continued to drive in runs, but his personality became something of an issue. Some guys, like Adrian and Crawford, aren’t suited for Boston.
His trade to Los Angeles left a huge hole at first base. Remember, before this trade they were still in contention for the wild card. It all fell apart with that trade. But they didn’t have Rizzo to put there. They had even traded Lars Anderson earlier in the season, so they had no future first baseman to call up like they did with Middlebrooks at third. Loney played defense well but hit like Ryan Sweeney. They then had below average hitters in left, center (Ellsbury was struggling to recover from his latest injury), at third (due to Middlebrooks broken wrist), and short. The line up fell apart, but Gonzalez was not going to keep it together.
Sixth, they ignored the warning signs on Ortiz’s Achilles. He was having a monster year before it happened again, and they got NOTHING out of the DH position the rest of the way. He should have had additional treatment, like this year. We’ll see how that worked.
Those were foreseeable issues that set them up for a horrible season. In other words, it never should have been that bad.
So far they have worked hard to get guys who can play in Boston, the right personality of player. They got some durable guys, and guys who should hit better in Fenway than they will anywhere else. We are still trying to figure out if they will ignore the warning signs with Napoli’s hip or roll the dice. I’m beginning to think they should offer LaRoache 3 years and see what happens.
The good thing is that the only team above them that has gotten any better talent-wise is the Blue Jays. But as we learned in 2011-12 is that what’s on paper may not show up on the field. The Rays have not gotten better and may have had a net loss (for now) by trading Shields. The Yankees have not gotten better, only older and more fragile. The strength of the Orioles was their bullpen, which kept them in games for odds defying hits (their overall run differential stunk!). So they seem more fluke than regular contender.
So, the Red Sox can move up the standings. I don’t think it will be enough to move into a wild card spot. But the off season isn’t done. What is clear is that barring another exorbitant number of injuries, they should not have nearly as many at bats by reserve players and use as many spot starters. That is a step in the right direction.
Cavman Considers 
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