The 2014 season seemed promising for the defending World Series champion Red Sox. They returned almost all of their starting rotation. The missing member of the 6 primary starters from the previous season was its weakest link: Dempster. The bullpen was largely intact as well. The pitching seemed to be ready to go. The one mystery was how Buchholz would bounce back from the injuries that hampered him for the 2nd half of the season.
They had a number of new players in key positions. Two were highly touted rookies Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Ellsbury would be missed in terms of offense but they hoped to make that up with Xander’s estimated production to be far greater the Stephen Drew’s. I was not wild about the signing of Pierzynski but his offense was expected to compensate to the loss of Saltalamacchia (he was go from .273 to a paltry .220 with the Marlins). The hope was for Middlebrooks to bounce back.
The plan was slightly altered when Grady Sizemore had an awesome camp and make the opening day roster. Looked great but then he failed to produce at the same pace. Or nearly any pace.
But I get slightly ahead of myself. All the breaks that went their way in 2013 didn’t in 2014. The new replay system seemed stacked against them in the first month as everyone tried to adjust. Lots of blown calls seemed to go against them. Some of these were game changers, or so it seemed.
Another thing that went right in 2013 is that a high number of players who played above their means. They had above average seasons, often career years. Saltalamacchia, Nava, Carp had career best seasons. Papi hit exceedingly well for his age. He hit for average and power. Napoli bounced back to have a good offensive season as did Victorino. Part of what went wrong was regression to mean for the players still on the roster, and not on the injured list.
The main problems initially were a lack of production from the outfield. Nava was pressing and in a big slump to start the season. Victorino was hurt and the combination of Sizemore and Bradley hit about .220. Middlebrooks continued to struggle. The offense was stagnant. Even Pedroia and Papi got off to a slow start. Seemed like the only guys who didn’t were Napoli and Xander.
Buccholz was just plain horrible. New reliever Mujica was too, and blew some games early. Peavy just couldn’t buy a break.
And then the real problems started. Napoli injured a finger and was never the same. Middlebrooks got hurt, again. This “forced” them to re-sign Drew and shift Xander to 3rd. For the first time in his career, shortly after the switch, Xander entered a big, ugly slump. Unknown to the rest of the world, Pedroia was still hurt and not productive at the plate though he still played stellar defense. But he was the only one. Okay, Bradley was playing fantastic defense. Xander struggled at third, and they couldn’t throw a base runner out.
The changes started to come fast and furious. They gave up on Sizemore and cut him (he was hitting .216 at the time and hit a slightly more respectable .243 for the Phillies). Pierzynki was cut (he hit .254 for the Sox and would go on to the Cards and hit .244 for them on the way to the playoffs). Peavy (1-9, 4.72) was traded to San Francisco where he was 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA helping the Giants make the playoffs. Amid tons of chatter about signing an extension, Lester was traded to the A’s who he helped make the playoffs. Lackey was sent to St. Louis whom he helped make the playoffs. Noticing a theme here? Let’s not forget trading Miller to division champion Baltimore.
One plus was that Christian Vasquez had the opportunity to show he can handle a staff and throw out runners. His production was not great, but he stopped the other teams that ran at will on Boston early in the season. Those runs saved amount to something important.
They went from an abundance of pitching with promising prospects on the way to a struggling Buchholz leading a staff of newly acquired Joe Kelly and a bunch of prospects who might not be so promising anymore.
On the plus side they added some power and production with Cespedes. They gambled that Craig would bounce back, saw Nava break out of his slump and hit as well as last year for the rest of the season. Bradley still couldn’t hit however. They then added Rusney Castillo. Mookie Betts came up and hit well (.290) while playing above average defense on sheer athleticism. He ended up batting lead off with promising results. With Victorino undergoing back surgery they will have too many guys for too few spots in the outfield. Whomever is left should be able to produce far more than the outfield did in 2014.
Bogaerts broke out of his slump and hit over .300 the last month of season. He restored some hope for the future at shortstop. Pedroia had another surgery that may restore the strength to his left hand. If so, he should return to being a very productive offensive second baseman. Buchholz flashed signs of the pitcher he can be in the last 2 months.
Another problem is a glaring lack of left-handed hitters. There is Big Papi, and …. Well, there is Nava (if he isn’t traded) and possibly Victorino if he returns to switch-hitting and remains with the club. He was missed tremendously if you asked me. When Brock Holt leads the team with 12 steals something is sorely wrong. Holt is a super-utility man who played very well for a few months. He’s better than Ciriaco was but he’s not a full-time guy. He is not an answer for the deep problems in this line up.
Those promises to be a very interesting off season following a most disappointing season. Nothing can be predicted. And that makes things all the more interesting.
To be fair, Rubby De La Rusa was pitching very well. He exceeded his previous innings mark and then struggled. I think he’ll be good next year if he stays healthy. Webster was inconsistent, again. At least this time he showed some flashes of the pitcher he could be. But the Red Sox need to invest in a starter rotation.
Ben Cherington has his work cut out for him. He needs a dependable, productive 3rd baseman (though Castillo can reportedly play 3rd). He needs to clear out the log jam in the outfield. He needs to identify the young players worth keeping besides Bogaerts and those he needs to trade (Betts? Though I hope not). I’m glad I’m not Ben.
My Best Guesses:
Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts start the season in AAA (barring injury) as depth. Cespedes was not a rental and will play everyday in the outfield because he produces runs (which the A’s discovered too late). Castillo will most likely play in center (unless they don’t get a 3rd baseman) as will Victorino. The only ones with trade value are Cespedes & Castillo but you just got them. Betts does, of course, but you will need him because both Cespedes and Victorino are free agents after the 2015 season. Craig is you primary back up for Victorino (and Napoli). He has little to no trade value right now. Nava may be the 5th outfielder, but he should have trade value after 2 good years (except for the first few months of this season). He gets on base and plays at least average defense in the corner (though he doesn’t have the power you usually want there).
Pablo Sandoval is their new 3rd baseman until Papi retires. He adds another lefty bat with power to add some balance to the line up. He gives you time for Cecchini to develop his defense in AAA. Or for Middlebrooks to figure out how to hit again. Pablo might move to first after Napoli’s contract is up if they think Cecchini or Middlebrooks is ready.
Lester or Shields becomes the ace. Either they finally work out the years and dollars with Lester or move to Big Game James (who wasn’t so big in the Wild Card game, but neither was Lester). I don’t see a trade for Hamels or anyone else. Who do you send? No one wants Bradley, Middlebrooks and Lavarnaway. Any top pitcher will take 2-3 elite prospects. Do you really see them trading Betts, Swihart and possibly Owens? Some of their other prospect pitchers are nice, but not what another organization wants for their ace. Webster and De La Rosa should find themselves in the starting rotation with the mystery man, Kelly & the annually injured Buchholz. I’m not sure who the depth starter is. Guys like Ranaudo need to develop another pitch to get guys out. Barnes and Owens are possibilities but don’t need to be rushed.
The Sox will not move Xander, Papi, Pedroia, Buchholz, De La Rosa, or Vasquez. They might move Napoli though I’m not sure of his value. This moves Craig to first and opens up an outfield spot. But Napoli brings intangibles to the game.
The bull pen is a big, fat mystery. It was the only unit to have a better year than in 2013 despite Mujica early on and Koji’s mechanical issues late. I suspect they bring back Koji. It would be great if they brought back Andrew Miller. But some of those pitching prospects will slide into the bull pan, like Workman and Brittan.
Guesses, just guesses.
Cavman Considers 
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