Considering 2010: The Year of Injuries

As a Boston sports fan (since my youth), I found 2010 hard to stomach.  Injuries plagued the Boston teams, derailing potentially good or great seasons.

It all started during Week 17 of the Patriots’ season when Wes Welker blew out his knee.  Surely this did not strike a death blow to the Patriots’ season, but it sure hurt.  There were a number of problems that were exposed in that playoff debacle against the Ravens.  But you have to wonder how a healthy Welker may have changed the outcome.

The Bruins seemed to be rolling along in the playoffs.. They were up 3-0 on the Flyers and seemed in position to move ahead.  But 2 important things happened.  1st, one of Philly’s best players returned to action for Game 4, and in Game 3 David Krejci was injured for the Bruins (another in a long line of Bruins’ seasons ended by the thuggery of the Broadway Bullies).  His loss was pivotal as the Flyers won 4 straight against a Krejci-less Bruins team.

The Celtics were leading the 2010 NBA Finals against the Lakers 3 – 2.  When Perkins blew out his knee, all that changed.  Unable to keep the Lakers off the boards, and expecting too much time from Davis & Wallace, the Celtics withered down the stretch of Game 7.  Perkins’ injury changed the series.

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Considering a Crazy Red Sox Weekend

It was a roller coaster ride for Red Sox fans this weekend.  At one point they were staring into the abyss, thinking the 2011 was utterly sunk.

Picture This in Fenway!

Thursday night the Red Sox and San Diego Padres reached a deal to trade Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Reymond Fuentes for the long lusted after Adrian Gonzalez (A-Gon).  The Padres got top prospects in Kelly and Rizzo.  Sox fans have been hyping Kelly’s skills since he was drafted.  He still projects by many scouts to end up a #2 or 3 starter on a competitive team.  Rizzo has displayed the ability to hit at a high level, though there are still some pitches he struggles with at times.  He is a very good defensive first baseman.  I think he has more promise at this point than Lars Anderson has demonstrated.  I was really hoping they’d send Lars west, but was disappointed.  So, the Padres should see these guys in the Bigs in 2012.  Fuentes, if he makes it, will be later.

The Sox have coveted A-Gon for years for good reason.  He has lots of power and still hits for a high average.  Considering he hit well in a pitcher’s park, his power and average should only increase in Fenway.  Unlike Big Papi, he’s not a pull hitter.  He uses all of the field, and many of his hits are to left field.  Lots of his outs too.  But those outs will hit or fly over the Monster.

In previous seasons he struggled against lefties.  But in 2010, the light bulb went on and he hit better against lefties than righties.  One theory is that his shoulder injury forced him to use a lighter bat so he was able to wait abit longer before beginning his swing (hey, Papi & Drew- worth a shot).

He’s also a very good defender at first base.

Credit to Theo, who keeps a tight lid on things like this.  He like to work quietly.  Rumors were coming out about talks, but word of the actual trade didn’t come out until Saturday.  Which is part of what created the scenario.

BUT ….. the Red Sox only had until 2 pm today to work out an extension with A-Gon.  If you are going to give up 2 top tier prospects, you want more than one season of a guy regardless of how good he is.  And they started the process VERY far apart.  He reportedly wanted Texiera money.  He is THAT good, people.  But the Red Sox are reluctant to sign ANYONE to an 8 year deal.  Especially since he had shoulder surgery this off season.

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Considering the Offseason So Far

Since the winter meetings start next week, it is time to talk about some baseball (mostly Red Sox though).

Some of the best off season news is that Joe Morgan was non-tendered by ESPN.  I didn’t mind Jon Miller, but Morgan drove me crazy.  He was a Hall of Fame player, but not a good color man.  They will replaced by the team of Orel Hershiser, Bobby Valentine and Dan Shulman.  Not too wild about Bobby, but Orel provides some great insight in my opinion.

AP Michael Dwyer

I was a bit surprised by the whole Victor Martinez thing.  Not that he left, but some of the details of his departure.  While he was in Boston we occasionally read how he was a catcher- he wanted to catch.  He was willing to play a little firstbase or DH, but he viewed himself as a catcher.  Victor is an elite hitter as a catcher, but only very good as a DH or a first baseman (and a below par fielder).  When you consider the guy who won the Silver Slugger award at the position last year (on a 1 year deal) made $9 million, you see that the price for elite DH’s is not quite as high as elite catchers.  And that is the catch- the Red Sox didn’t want to pay him like an elite catcher when he had shifted to first base or DH full-time.  Position does matter.

Their experience with ‘Tek’s swift offensive decline (and Victor, his conditioning is legendary so it wasn’t that he didn’t take care of his body), left a bad taste in their mouth.  That and the Mike Lowell contract.  They don’t want old guys gone bad being paid big bucks.  They can’t print money like the Yankees can (especially with Fenway no longer being a HOT ticket and NESN ratings plummeting).

During the press conference to announce V-Mart’s good-sized contract it was announced that he was going to back up their catcher and spend most of his time at DH and 1st base.  Huh?  I felt like I got the old switcheroo.  But they are paying him like he’s a elite catcher.  He doesn’t have the thump you want from a DH or 1st baseman.  I will miss his ability to excel against lefties, but I think the Red Sox made a good move.  He was also a great club house guy, who worked well with some of the pitchers (Clay) but struggled with others (is Beckett’s decline coincidental?).  His probable replacement didn’t hit as well, but did a good job with the pitchers.  All starters went into the 7th (and with that bullpen, it was a huge deal).  So the Sox most likely got a defensive upgrade.  Victor worked hard, and showed some improvement but he’s over 30 and his defensive skills won’t drastically improve.  When you have to face the Rays 19 times, and face the possibility of facing the Rangers in the playoffs- you have to throw people out!

AP Photo Jeff Roberson

Of course, now there is talk of the Red Sox picking up Russell Martin via free agency, or swinging a trade with the Dodger for him.  He has been hampered by injury the last few years, but might make a good platoon with Salty. [Update: they have just re-signed, not resigned, Jason Varitek.]

I’ve posted before on the Crawford-Werth debate. Sox officials met with Crawford yesterday.  They plan to meet with Scott Boras (hit the Darth Vader music) about Werth and Beltre before the Winter Meetings.  My BIG concern (really big concern) is the length of contracts mentioned thus far.  Far too long.  I suspect the Red Sox will be quite resistant to commit to anyone that long, especially anyone over 30.

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Considering Carl Crawford

Carl Crawford is a free agent.  Many baseball fans are drooling.  They want their team to sign Crawford.  And for good reason, he is an excellent player.  Years ago, I had wished the Red Sox could get him somehow.  He is a very good defender, hits for a good average and the occasional homerun.  He is an excellent base stealer.  As a result, he disrupts pitchers and gets those after him in the line up some fastballs to crush.

I now depart from the party line that says the Red Sox should get Crawford.  That is not because he’s suddenly a bad player.  It’s simply that he is not what the Red Sox need.  Before Jacoby came up, they needed a player just like Crawford.  Now, not so much.

Jaboby is a very good defender who is actually willing (demanding?) to play centerfield.  Crawford pretty much refused to play CF for the Rays, creating some line up issues for them.  He also resisted hitting lead off.  Makes me wonder if Carl is more about Carl than about the team.  Jacoby has learned to hit lead off, as evidenced by the end of the 2009 season.  It takes players time to learn certain things, and it certainly looked like Ellsbury had learned that skill.  Jacoby already has what Crawford could bring to a team.

Jayson Werth (AP Photo)

The bigger need for the Red Sox is a big bat to hit lefties.  Ortiz has struggled mightily against lefties in recent years.  Lowell is gone for retirement.  V-Mart is probably gone for a more affordable option that can play better defense (Buck?) who doesn’t require as many years.  V-Mart has been reluctant to rotate between 1st and DH, and part of me doesn’t blame him.  He’s getting old for a catcher and that will be necessary toward the end of a contract the length he is seeking.  He’s not worth the money of a premiere  DH or first baseman.  And Beltre might be heading West.

Drew has been struggling against lefties too.  So what you say?  The Yankees have very good lefties to pitch against the Sox.  The Red Sox need to re-balance their line up.  Without a power hitting right hander, the Red Sox will be in trouble for years to come.  The young guns who should be able to get some time in 2012 with Drew’s and Cameron’s contracts ending are not ready to hit for power regularly.  With Ortiz only signed for 1 more year, the Red Sox need some power.  That left field position is historically a power position for the Red Sox (Mike Greenwell excepted).  Crawford does not have the power the Red Sox need.  And Crawford only hits .256 against lefties (.332 against righties).

Jayson Werth is more of what the Red Sox need than Crawford at this time.  He  hits .287 against lefties, and .300 against righties for good balance.  He can play all three outfield positions, and could play DH.  He might not play every night, but he’d play quite abit since Drew is good for some time on the DL, Cameron is getting older and they will face plenty of left handers.

So, here is hoping that Carl Crawford heads out West so we won’t see him much anymore.  He’s earned his big payday, and I don’t begrudge him.  I just don’t think it should be with the Red Sox.

Update: Looks like I called that all wrong.  That Nationals’ deal came out of left field- complete shock.  I still think Crawford is a better player, but Werth a better fit.  But one thing that concerned Theo (and John Lackey) from 2010 was runs given up by the defense, particularly the outfield.  The Sox just strengthened the outfield defense (and Crawford’s weak arm is not a concern at Fenway), and added another guy who works hard and produces.  If he stayed in the AL East, I’m glad we have him.  The Red Sox have a monster line up with lots of speed to boot.  Contrary to some others, I’d put Ellsbury, Crawford and Pedroia 1-3.  Suddenly you’ve got double steal speed to really mess with pitcher’s heads.  Crawford is not great against lefties, but he’s not horrible either.

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