Considering the 2016 Red Sox: Opening Day Edition

Opening Day is nearly here. While the Red Sox open the season in Cleveland, I’ll be attending the D’Backs home opener. Hopefully I will see Zach Greinke pitch well, and that dominant offense from Spring Training (but it was only Spring Training). But let’s focus on the Red Sox.

The Promise:

This would be the young guys who are playing an increasing number of positions for this Red Sox team.

Xander Bogaerts is on the brink of being an All-Star. Last year his defense was much improved. As was his hitting. The only thing he lacks at this point is power. If he can start driving the ball a little more, they could have a superstar on their hands.

Mookie Betts has been shifted to right field to make way for JBJ. He was a very good center fielder last year, and hit very well the second half of the season. He has the arm for right field. This spring (caveat: it’s spring) he has displayed more power. Mookie is an all-star in the making and seems to have the charisma to make the leap to superstar.

Jackie Bradley Jr. showed some of the promise for about a month or so. That would be as a hitter. His defense is Gold Glove level. It was his offense that has kept him bouncing between Boston and Pawtucket. He hit well in Spring training, again (and again it is spring). We’ll see if this is the year he puts it all together for a season.

Travis Shaw is our late addition to this group. He wasn’t expected to be named the starter at third base. In part because he played first base. He probably hoped to be the back up at first and third. Hanley has stayed healthy, so far. But the Panda is like Po and seemingly expanding in girth every time you see him. That is great if you are an animated Panda. Not if you are the third baseman of the Red Sox and need to play defense. It was Shaw’s hitting this spring, and Pablo’s lack thereof that has Travis starting the season in the field at the hot corner. He put things together late last season during a call-up. He opened some eyes by flashing more power than expected. Will he maintain or become the next Will Middlebrooks? Only time will tell, as Asia sang.

Blake Swihart will start as the primary catcher. He was rushed to Boston due to injuries to Vazquez and Hannigan. He struggled offensively at first, but improved as the season wore on. While he is improving as a catcher, the main draw is his hitting.

Christian Vazquez starts the season on the DL as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He is the emerging as a great defensive catcher. We’ll see if his throwing returns. It was very hard to steal on Christian. He is also great at framing pitches and calls such a good game that he’s the guy pitchers want calling the game. If he can hit .260 …. he’ll have a long career. But will it be with the Red Sox? Can they keep both Christian and Blake? Will Blake move to another position (I’d say first, but Sam Travis is due in the next year or so)? Perhaps Blake will be moved to get pitching. There are many questions for this position, but these are good questions not bad questions.

Eduardo Rodriguez begins the year on the DL after tweaking his knee during a drill in spring training. He did well last year, when he wasn’t tipping pitches. He supposedly made the necessary changes. He looks very promising. But so did Felix Doubront. Everyone is high on him, and he wants to learn about pitching from Price. Hopefully we will be ready to pitch soon.

I’m not sure if Brock Holt fits here, but I’m not sure where to put him. He is their super-utility player who has suddenly become their starting left fielder against righties. He experienced a down turn at the end of last season. Was it fatigue? Had pitchers figured him out? Time will tell. This may have a ripple effect should anyone in the infield gets hurt. Perhaps they will move him to the infield and play the 4th outfielder.

Shaw and Holt are the beneficiaries of Dumbrowski’s decree that Farrell play the best players, not necessarily the highest paid players. Apparently Farrell didn’t believe him. Dumbrowski is dealing with a bunch of players that Cherington signed. The ghosts of the Cherington era haunt Fenway. Dumbrowski will try to exorcise some, but may have to wait some out.

The Foundation

Dustin Pedroia is bouncing back from yet another injury. His defensive ratings dropped last year, but his power came back. He still makes amazing plays and is fun to watch. The question is how many games he’ll play.

This is the David Ortiz farewell tour. Spring Training is sort of superfluous to him. He’ll probably hit over 30 HR and drive in about 100 RBI, if healthy. It will be sad to see him, and his production. For now, he continues to anchor the heart of the line up.

David Price is the new ace, and should be for some time. He’s also the mentor for the young pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez. This is the guy Dombrowski wanted, and got. I’m glad the Red Sox don’t have to face him anymore.

Craig Kimbrel is the new closer. He has played long enough to not be part of the promise for the future. He should help stabilize the bull pen after it was used, abused and misused last year. The first problem was starters getting knocked out early and often. Due to injuries and failures they went through more options at closer than I can count or remember. With the re-vamped bull pen they could shorten games. This took a hit with Carson Smith’s injury.

The Problems & Question Marks

There are just too many of these.

Hanley Ramirez is untested as a first baseman. So far it has been far better than left field was. His hitting is also a big question mark. He was once a great hitter. He hit well in April, and then hit a wall. The shoulder injury hampered his swing the rest of the year.  We are very uncertain if he will be productive this year.

Pablo Sandoval has potentially eaten himself out of a starting job. I’m not sure what the Red Sox should do. He may have an eating disorder as some have theorized. That would necessitate treatment, but he’d need to want it. If he loses some weight, and Shaw struggles, he may find his way back onto the field. Or he may be traded if the Padres want to take a chance on him. One of the pictures I saw from Spring Training was Pablo fielding ground balls. In this shorts pocket was what appeared to be a cell phone. A large one. I’m not doing fielding drills with my phone. This indicates to me that some priorities are out of whack.

Rusney Castillo was a big risk by Cherington and company. He hasn’t panned out, yet. He has struggled with the fastball. He may go back to the minors since he lost his spot to Brock Holt. He needs at bats to develop his offense. Now we watch, and wait.

Clay Buchholz is an enigma. When he’s having a difficult season, you want him to get hurt. When he’s having a fantastic season, he inevitably gets hurt. He’s like a yo-yo alternating good and horrible seasons. He started well last year before the injury bug bit him, yet again.

Rick Porcello has had a frustrating stint with the Red Sox. Dumbrowski dealt him away from Detroit, and is stuck with him again. I wonder if he groaned. Rick had a strong finish to his season. So far the early season Porcello who gave up home runs has been pitching. But it is Spring Training and guys are working on pitches rather than pitching to win. We’ll see which Porcello shows up.

Joe Kelly is another enigma. How many can one team have on it’s pitching staff??? He dominated at the end of the season with a new approach to pitching. If THAT guy shows up, things look good for him, and therefore the Red Sox.

Koji Uehara is getting older. He is no longer the closer after struggling some. Junichi Tazawa struggled due to overuse last season. Has he recovered ,or is he damaged goods? Big question.

 

This could be a very good season, or a very bad one. While there is much promise, there are also some big question marks and concerns. It really could go either way. This is a season in which they may be more prone to injury than normally. Now we just watch and wait.

 

 

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Considering a Really Horrible Season

The 2014 season seemed promising for the defending World Series champion Red Sox. They returned almost all of their starting rotation. The missing member of the 6 primary starters from the previous season was its weakest link: Dempster. The bullpen was largely intact as well. The pitching seemed to be ready to go. The one mystery was how Buchholz would bounce back from the injuries that hampered him for the 2nd half of the season.

They had a number of new players in key positions. Two were highly touted rookies Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. Ellsbury would be missed in terms of offense but they hoped to make that up with Xander’s estimated production to be far greater the Stephen Drew’s. I was not wild about the signing of Pierzynski but his offense was expected to compensate to the loss of Saltalamacchia (he was go from .273 to a paltry .220 with the Marlins). The hope was for Middlebrooks to bounce back.

The plan was slightly altered when Grady Sizemore had an awesome camp and make the opening day roster. Looked great but then he failed to produce at the same pace. Or nearly any pace.

But I get slightly ahead of myself. All the breaks that went their way in 2013 didn’t in 2014. The new replay system seemed stacked against them in the first month as everyone tried to adjust. Lots of blown calls seemed to go against them. Some of these were game changers, or so it seemed.

Another thing that went right in 2013 is that a high number of players who played above their means. They had above average seasons, often career years. Saltalamacchia, Nava, Carp had career best seasons. Papi hit exceedingly well for his age. He hit for average and power. Napoli bounced back to have a good offensive season as did Victorino. Part of what went wrong was regression to mean for the players still on the roster, and not on the injured list.

The main problems initially were a lack of production from the outfield. Nava was pressing and in a big slump to start the season. Victorino was hurt and the combination of Sizemore and Bradley hit about .220. Middlebrooks continued to struggle. The offense was stagnant. Even Pedroia and Papi got off to a slow start. Seemed like the only guys who didn’t were Napoli and Xander.

Buccholz was just plain horrible. New reliever Mujica was too, and blew some games early. Peavy just couldn’t buy a break.

And then the real problems started. Napoli injured a finger and was never the same. Middlebrooks got hurt, again. This “forced” them to re-sign Drew and shift Xander to 3rd. For the first time in his career, shortly after the switch, Xander entered a big, ugly slump. Unknown to the rest of the world, Pedroia was still hurt and not productive at the plate though he still played stellar defense. But he was the only one. Okay, Bradley was playing fantastic defense. Xander struggled at third, and they couldn’t throw a base runner out.

The changes started to come fast and furious. They gave up on Sizemore and cut him (he was hitting .216 at the time and hit a slightly more respectable .243 for the Phillies). Pierzynki was cut (he hit .254 for the Sox and would go on to the Cards and hit .244 for them on the way to the playoffs). Peavy (1-9, 4.72) was traded to San Francisco where he was 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA helping the Giants make the playoffs. Amid tons of chatter about signing an extension, Lester was traded to the A’s who he helped make the playoffs. Lackey was sent to St. Louis whom he helped make the playoffs. Noticing a theme here? Let’s not forget trading Miller to division champion Baltimore.

One plus was that Christian Vasquez had the opportunity to show he can handle a staff and throw out runners. His production was not great, but he stopped the other teams that ran at will on Boston early in the season. Those runs saved amount to something important.

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Considering the Sox 2013 Spring Training

New Sox pitcher Ryan Dempter (AP)

By all accounts, most Red Sox fans are supposed to be depressed, disappointed by the free agent signings this winter.

Count me as one of the minority. I did not want them do what they had in the past, and the Punto trade freed them from: long term deals. That deal gave them 2 young pitchers for the future. They have a few prospects, particularly in the outfield that are going to be ready soon. Locking up Hamilton and another outfielder just didn’t make sense to me.

One thing I noticed is that they addressed one of the issues that plagued them last season. They signed players who have a solid approach at the plate, work the count and get walks (here is a great article about plate approach). This slipped away from them last season. It allows them to wear down pitchers, allow other guys to get a good look at a pitcher’s stuff increase the odds of getting a pitch you can drive. The guys they signed also have swings suited for the confines of Fenway Park. Last year, their offense didn’t dominate at home. They seem to have fixed that too.

Napoli, despite his hip condition, has hit the ball well. Yes, it is only Spring Training (just insert this often). And he has defended well. This is a good sign. Defense matters too! While I don’t expect him to win a gold glove, it looks like he’ll at least be adequate.

The same can’t really be said for Johnny Gomes in left field. It gets ugly out there. Hopefully his offense will make up for it. He seems a better candidate to fill in at DH when Big Papi is on the DL, which will happen to start the season but hopefully won’t start a trend. Gomes can hit. But he was also part of transforming the club house. Victorino will play solid defense in right (or center if Ellsbury gets hurt, again). But how he’ll hit is still a mystery. They want loose guys and these guys seem to fit that bill. The 2004 Sox had Millar, Damon and Pedro to take the pressure off when the team was struggling. That is what was missing in September 2011. And last year.

Drew hasn’t done much thanks to a concussion. There is just something about Drews and Boston. But thankfully Iglesias’ visit to Pedroia this winter paid off in a better approach at the plate. His swing is much better and he’s making more contact and better contact (6 extra base hits so far (3/16)). This may give them the opportunity to trade Drew to the Cards now that Furcal is hurt. Time will tell.

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