Considering the Red Sox 2019 Season

Last night the Red Sox were officially eliminated from the playoffs. They are an 80-something win team after a dominant 2018 season that saw them win over 100 games and the World Series by beating the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers.

What in the world happened????

Much of this falls on Dombrowski, which is why he is no longer employed by the Red Sox. I didn’t say all, but much. There there is much for which he is responsible. He didn’t play, but he didn’t get the right players for them to defend their title.

He did have salary restrictions, but the problem was how he handled those restrictions. While the Sox ain’t broke, they don’t want to experience increasing sanctions, like draft picks for exceeding the cap.

The Bull Pen

Dombrowski let both Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel walk. I understand, they wanted more money and the Red Sox couldn’t afford them. They didn’t have great seasons. Kelly had an ERA over 4.60 this season. Kimbrel held out and has probably spent more time on the IL than on the mound. I had my doubts about him last season. He was starting to give me heart trouble by putting guys on.

The problem really is that Dombrowski didn’t replace them. He used “internal” options, meaning guys who had experience as a closer. Oh, and success. Unless you want to include the junk heap guys who spent most of the time in the minors.

The result? Only the Baltimore Orioles had a lower save percentage. Too often saves were blown, leads lost and comebacks squandered. It doesn’t how many runs your offense puts up if your pitching gives up more. This was the sad tale of the 2019 Red Sox.

The Rotation

One of the two signings by Dombrowski was to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi after his impressive post-season saving performance. He has a long-term record of injuries and inconsistency to go along with that fastball. He gave the Sox plenty of both, and they should expect to see more since they signed him for 4 years and there are 3 to go. This doesn’t bode well, and is a big part of the hole that Dombrowski dug moving forward.

So, the Red Sox entered the season with 4 starting pitchers who had recent histories of injuries. What happened? E-Rod who has battled injures and inconsistency finally became the pitcher we wanted him to become.

The aforementioned Eovaldi, Price and Sale spent large portions of the season on the IL instead of the pitching mound getting outs. Their inability to perform wore out a bull pen that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Porcello was healthy but had probably his worst season ever.

All that falls on Dombrowski who mismanaged the offseason. They have tons of money tied up in starting pitching that has proven to be largely unreliable. They will have to replace Porcello. Hopefully whomever they pick can do better than his 5.56 ERA at considerably less money. But they will need depth in the system which they didn’t have this season.

Dombrowski’s other “big” move was to bring back Steve Pearce who ended up with a whopping 89 at bats this season. His injury made way for Michael Chavis who provided some power when he played. Chavis was a bright spot much of the time.

The Offense

The offense was potent once again. Betts was less aggressive, and regressed significantly. There were only glimpses of his greatness at the plate. This was countered by Rafael Devers’ emergence as a force to be reckoned with going forward.

The Future

The problem is J.D. Martinez has a player option and will likely opt out. There is a good chance he’s wearing another uniform next year. JBJ is set to be a free agent as well so you need an outfielder who can at least hit .250 and provide some above average defense. Perhaps no one else wants a .220 hitter with superior defense and he’ll come back for a discount.

But Betts …. with one year of arbitration he’s likely a trade chip for pitching or gone as a free agent in 2021. This is the primary reason Dombrowski was let go. As a “lame duck” with one year left on his deal, he wasn’t the guy to handle this key off season.

The key players the Red Sox seem to have in their system seem to be infielders. While they do need a first baseman and second baseman, they are well set at third and short. But they have significant needs in the outfield, the rotation, bullpen and possibly DH. This is a problem that Dombrowski helped create, and like a politician he probably won’t be able to fix the mess he made.

This is a significant off season that will establish whether or not they will be competing with the Yankees or the Orioles for the next decade. We know who won’t be making these decisions, but we don’t know who will.

 

 

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Considering the 2017 Red Sox

It was a long, frustrating season. There were many times I wanted to give up on them. Mostly I wanted to fire Farrell. But the frustration of this season doesn’t lie at just at Farrell’s door.

1. The Missing Papi. Yes, his play was missed. More than that was probably his presence. Some of those young players needed him in tough times. It is hard to know but I suspect things would be different in the clubhouse controversies.
2. Clubhouse Controversies. Price was seriously out of control. The fans just want you to perform as you have for years. It really isn’t complicated. But he thinks he can act like Ted Williams. I understand him being frustrated with the media, but not the fans. I didn’t think he was a good fit here, and still don’t think he was. He treatment of Eck was similar to Manny’s antics that got him gone. Part of me hopes he’s gone. Pedroia struggled with leadership during the Machado events, and not reigning in Price.
3. Injuries. There were the guys who missed serious time, especially the starting pitchers. Stephen Wright missed the season. Rodriquez was not right even when he was pitching. Price was in and out. Fister actually had some good starts, but that you had to rely on him was crazy. But when your depth keeps getting hurt or can’t throw strikes this is what happens. But it was the injuries that hampered guys: Bogaerts, Betts and Moreland all had injuries that put them in prolonged slumps. Pedroia was having a good season before his knee became too much of a problem. Hanley’s shoulder had an unknown effect on his play.
4. Sloppy Baseball. There were too many “error repeaters”, guys who kept making the same mistake. I love Benintendi but he ran into too many outs. He wasn’t the only one. There was some sloppy defense at times.
5. Farrell, Farrell, Farrell. He “protected” players. Fine. But he needed to correct players. He didn’t need to protect Price in the Eck incident. He made so many mysterious moves. He’d play guys who struggled for guys who were playing well. Too many mystifying moves, and not just in the playoffs. You play Devers and put Marrero in late for defense. But Farrell plays Marrerro based on the “match ups” despite the actual statistics that screamed, play Rafael.
6. Dombrowski. The Sale move was great. Moreland played well, but this team had no power. The pen needed help due to injuries from last season, which should have been addressed. His was a mixed report card.
7. The B’s regressed. Some of it was injuries. Some was struggling to get out of funks or the sophomore wall. I think we’ve seen the best of Bradley. Betts and Bogaerts had injuries and should be better next year. Benintendi worked through the problems and likely learned some important lessons. But their missing production was a serious problem for this team.

This will be an interesting off season. It began with a bang. Finally Farrell was fired. He was never Dombrowski’s man. But you don’t fire a guy who just survived cancer. They should have let him go after last year’s sweep and kept Luvollo. But he lost the clubhouse in addition to the bonehead moves that probably had Dombrowski throwing darts at his picture.

1. New manager. Looks like it will be either Alex Cora, Brad Ausmus, or Ron Gardenhire. I’m surprise Gabe Kapler isn’t in there. Of those three, I only want Cora. I’ve wanted him as manager for a few years now. He’s smart, articulate, gets analytics and builds relationships. He seems to have good EQ. Gardenhire apparently has good EQ as well, but is old school and doesn’t like the analytics that Farrell seemed to ignore or his book was a  few years old. Ausmus has a low EQ and struggles in dealing with the press. We don’t need Farrell part 2. Cora, please. Whomever it is they need to build a good staff. Perhaps Butter got complacent but they didn’t seem to fix fielding problems. Too many hitters had prolonged slumps and Porcello never quite got his mechanics figured out this year. That shouldn’t be happening. Update: Gardenhire was hired by the Tigers.
2. New slugger. I’d like J.D. Martinez, but that would necessitate a move like trading Bradley. Both Benintendi and Betts can play center field. Bradley may help get you pitching. Hosmer is another option and he’d fill the hole at first. But they need a solid veteran slugger who can help change the club house culture like in 2013.
3. Surgeries have begun. Ross was first, and the least significant. E-Rod’s surgery was overdue and hopefully will resolve his issue with the balky knee so he can trust it again. Hanley’s shoulder surgery was probably overdue. Perhaps he returns to a fearsome hitter instead of the shell of himself he was this year. Pedey should have one on his knee but it may be a problem going forward. This does create some short-term issues. E-Rod won’t be ready to begin 2018. This means you need Wright and Price healthy and ready to go. Assuming you keep Price after sitting him down and telling him he’s been an ass. Who knows when and for how long Pedroia will be healthy. They need a good back-up plan for him. Nunez would be a great one, if you can convince him to come back.
4. Good-bye Chris Young. He was pretty useless this year. Does this mean Castillo gets another chance? Or does Brentz finally get a chance? Brentz may add some power to the line up. If you go for Martinez, you have Sam Travis ready to play first. He’s not really a power bat, at least yet. Unless you want to move Devers there instead of Chavis. Devers and Chavis would give you 2 power bats at the corners. I’m not sure Chavis is ready for the big leagues, so now you need Devers at 3rd with Marrero as the utility/defensive replacement. Tough decisions, to be sure.All of this is why you need a manager who can work with the young players, unlike Farrell.
5. 6-man modified rotation? Having Wright is a big advantage if he’s healthy. He could give you one start per starter per month. Sale could get some rest throughout the season so he’s ready to dominate when you need him too. Not May but September and October. In between those irregular starts, the knuckleballer can provide long relief. Now that Farrell is gone he won’t be a pinch runner and messing up his shoulder on slides.
6. The Unexpected Moves. Dombrowski can’t stand pat. They barely beat the Yankees, but that doesn’t mean they are the better team. The Series-bound Yankees have figured out what the Red Sox haven’t in 2 tries: how to win in the post-season. Their many young stars are progressing. The Sox have to get better too.

This is a crossroads kind of off-season. They will either get better or worse. If better they will be in contention for championships. Worse, and the next few years will be just as frustrating as this one, or more. Now is when Dombrowski has to earn his keep.

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Considering Dombrowski’s Deals

He’s a wheeler-dealer man.

After two last place finished, John Henry realized that his philosophy may be slightly problematic. But you don’t want to just spend money for the sake of spending it (see Big Panda and Hanley Ramirez). You want a guy who has a proven track record of delivering. All season long, not just in the World Series (Panda).

Dombrowski is looking to be a shrewd dude. He saw that trading for an ace would be a costly proposition. He stated he would most likely get one in free agency, and he pulled off what I thought couldn’t be done: David Price. While Price hasn’t dominated the post-season like he has the regular season he has pitched some good games and been done in by bad luck. He is what Clay Buchholz is not: durable and consistent. He’s also an alpha dog who leads by example, and words.

The presence of the opt out clause after year 3 is actually a selling point for me. As is keeping the 12th draft pick (and our best prospects). We might not get stuck with a phantom of David Price in years 6 & 7. Then again … who knows.

But this we do know: for the foreseeable future the Red Sox have their ace and their closer. And that is pretty stinking important. In 2016 they will still have Big Papi to prove power, and a lefty bat in a righty dominant line up.

It isn’t about winning the offseason, but the real season. This helps them greatly, but as we saw in 2011, guarantees NOTHING.

Having 6 major league starters, they needed to trade one (or more). Speculation was rampant. Without the pressure of being the ace, Porcello made the proper adjustments and finished very strong. The same thing with Joe Kelly. I’d hate to trade them and see them flourish elsewhere.

Today the odd man out was Wade Miley, the Garden Gnome. I call him that because of a give-away they had while he was a member of the D’Backs. He is an innings eater whose ERA has been climbing every year (to be fair, last year was his first in the AL). He is durable but he is a 4 or 5.

They shipped him and a relief pitcher, who in his brief stint in the big last year had an ERA over 6, to the Mariners for 2 pitchers. The first, Roenis Elis, is a righty (Miley is a lefty) who can fill that important role of long relief and spot starter. Those are valuable guys. Especially if Buchholz, or I should say when, gets hurt. Or if one of the other guys struggles. Most likely the first guy out of AAA in case of a DL stint will be Henry Owens or Brian Johnson.

The other pitcher, Carson Smith, helps shore up the bullpen as another guy who strikes people out. Maybe, just maybe, Dombrowski has figured out how to build a bullpen (or had help in Wren and Hazen). He’s also under Red Sox control until 2020, the anti-Chapman.

The line up is nearly set, barring a trade (rumors have the Indians considering the Panda). Brock Holt is your uber-utility infielder and Chris Young as the 4th outfielder who can hit the lefties that JBJ may still struggle against.

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Considering Red Sox Pitching Changes

The Red Sox have only made one move so far this off season. That would be the trade for Padres and Braves closer Craig Kimbrell. He is exactly what they needed in the bull pen. He came “cheaper” than Chapman, in terms of players going in the other direction, and will belong to the Red Sox for more than one season (Chapman will be free agent after the 2016 season). He was pricey in that they lost 4 lower level prospects with tons of upside. Potential is not always realized, however. There have been plenty of prospects that don’t pan out like everyone hoped. This is not the dealing away of Jeff Bagwell for a rental who doesn’t even get you into the playoffs. But he didn’t cost them their best and most electrifying prospects: Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi. Or the guys read;y to make the jump to the big leagues: Owens, and Johnson.

The Kimbrell trade gives you an elite closer who throws high 90’s heat. The coveted power arm at the back end of the bullpen. This takes the pressure off of Koji, who has struggled with injuries the last 2 seasons and is 40 years old. Koji doesn’t need to close, and can provide protection as well as a dependable guy to pitch in the 8th. This creates bullpen depth they sorely lacked last year. Tazawa is pushed to the 7th.

This also means that Joe Kelly remains in the rotation. He showed great improvement after returning from the DL. If he can be THAT guy, the rotation will be much better and save the bullpen unlike last year. The lousy starts by Kelly and Porcello, and occasionally Miley, devastated the bullpen.

The main question is who will the Red Sox sign to be the ace. Finishing in last the previous 2 seasons sent a strong message to John Henry about the need for an ace ASAP. E Rod may be an ace one day. Maybe. Or he could be the 2nd coming of Felix Doubrant whom we thought would be the 2nd coming of Jon Lester by finally figuring a few things out so he could go deep in game. Nope. Felix was not in the majors last I knew. He just got worse.

Clay has ace caliber stuff, but can’t stay healthy. I pity the fool who relies on Buchholz Available aces tend to be older, unless you want to pay the king’s ransom for them. It worked for Pedro. But most young guys like Grey are not available, or their teams are greedy. A few are untouchable, only a few. But guys like Owens and Johnson and Shaw won’t get a trade done. Besides Shaw may end up playing first in 2017, and will back up the increasingly fragile Hanley Ramirez as he takes over first base (crossing fingers).

Dombrowski indicates that they will most likely get that #1 starter in free agency. This leaves us to consider Price, Cueto, Greinke and Jordan Zimmerman. These are the guys, and even Zimmerman is borderline as the #3 pitcher on the Nationals. He also had a lousy free agent year. Health, pressure, lack of confidence? I’m not sure I want to spend ace money on Zimmerman. Or give him ace responsibilities. With Porcello at $20 million they could quickly have an over-priced and under-performing rotation.

As Owens and Johnson develop and prove they can perform in the big leagues, they can force the Red Sox to trade Miley (he’s on a good contract and is probably the most tradable of Porcello, Kelly and Miley).

So, we are down to Price, Cueto and Greinke. The first 2 were traded during the season, so they were not eligible for qualifying offers. This means that only Greinke will cost them a draft pick. A 12th pick, kind of draft pick.

This is a high price. However, it may be worth paying. Greinke has dealt with his social anxiety issues. He is a thinking man’s pitcher. He is big on advanced analytics, and got Bannister, now a Red Sox employee, into them while they both pitched for Kansas City. The connection with Bannister may be important. Not being a a power pitcher may mean that Zach is able to dominate longer, much lack Maddox. He may be the best value over the life of the his contract. He has pitched in the AL, obviously, though it has been awhile. He has seemed to resolve his post season issues.

All the “experts” and GMs believe that the Red Sox will sign Price. Earlier they all though he’d head to the Cubs to be reunited with Maddon rather than pursue a reunion with Dombrowski. I’m sure he could play with Ortiz for a season, but I’m not sure he wants to play for Red Sox fans who have been a bit hard on him. While his post season record is pretty lousy, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t pitched well. His WHIP is slightly higher, which doesn’t quite explain the significantly higher ERA. Oh, the joys of a smaller sample size and the vagaries of post season play. He has pitched most of his career in the AL East when it was one of the best divisions in baseball. He can pitch in the division.

Price is more of a power pitcher, which means that unless he’s Nolan Ryan, he will not live up to the last years of what looks to be a huge contract. He is likely to be the guy John Henry fears or feared.

Cueto has that Luis Tiant odd delivery thing going for him. What he doesn’t seem to have going for him is a bum elbow. There are some serious questions about that elbow. He does seem to be a good leader, talking pitching with other starters on the bench during games. He’s the alpha dog type you want. He may be cheaper due to the question about the elbow. You could try the John Lackey maneuver with him- add a year at league minimum if he has surgery on that arm.

I am glad I’m not Dumbrowski, and I don’t have to make that choice, and live with the consequences.

Update: Zimmerman signed with the Tigers for about $22 million a year for 5 years.

The D’Backs are pushing hard for Cueto.

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