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Last night the Red Sox were officially eliminated from the playoffs. They are an 80-something win team after a dominant 2018 season that saw them win over 100 games and the World Series by beating the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers.

What in the world happened????

Red Sox President of Baseball Operations David Dombrowski (23655867925).jpgMuch of this falls on Dombrowski, which is why he is no longer employed by the Red Sox. I didn’t say all, but much. There there is much for which he is responsible. He didn’t play, but he didn’t get the right players for them to defend their title.

He did have salary restrictions, but the problem was how he handled those restrictions. While the Sox ain’t broke, they don’t want to experience increasing sanctions, like draft picks for exceeding the cap.

The Bull Pen

Dombrowski let both Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel walk. I understand, they wanted more money and the Red Sox couldn’t afford them. They didn’t have great seasons. Kelly had an ERA over 4.60 this season. Kimbrel held out and has probably spent more time on the IL than on the mound. I had my doubts about him last season. He was starting to give me heart trouble by putting guys on.

The problem really is that Dombrowski didn’t replace them. He used “internal” options, meaning guys who had experience as a closer. Oh, and success. Unless you want to include the junk heap guys who spent most of the time in the minors.

The result? Only the Baltimore Orioles had a lower save percentage. Too often saves were blown, leads lost and comebacks squandered. It doesn’t how many runs your offense puts up if your pitching gives up more. This was the sad tale of the 2019 Red Sox.

The Rotation

One of the two signings by Dombrowski was to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi after his impressive post-season saving performance. He has a long-term record of injuries and inconsistency to go along with that fastball. He gave the Sox plenty of both, and they should expect to see more since they signed him for 4 years and there are 3 to go. This doesn’t bode well, and is a big part of the hole that Dombrowski dug moving forward.

So, the Red Sox entered the season with 4 starting pitchers who had recent histories of injuries. What happened? E-Rod who has battled injures and inconsistency finally became the pitcher we wanted him to become.

The aforementioned Eovaldi, Price and Sale spent large portions of the season on the IL instead of the pitching mound getting outs. Their inability to perform wore out a bull pen that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Porcello was healthy but had probably his worst season ever.

All that falls on Dombrowski who mismanaged the offseason. They have tons of money tied up in starting pitching that has proven to be largely unreliable. They will have to replace Porcello. Hopefully whomever they pick can do better than his 5.56 ERA at considerably less money. But they will need depth in the system which they didn’t have this season.

Dombrowski’s other “big” move was to bring back Steve Pearce who ended up with a whopping 89 at bats this season. His injury made way for Michael Chavis who provided some power when he played. Chavis was a bright spot much of the time.

The Offense

The offense was potent once again. Betts was less aggressive, and regressed significantly. There were only glimpses of his greatness at the plate. This was countered by Rafael Devers’ emergence as a force to be reckoned with going forward.

The Future

The problem is J.D. Martinez has a player option and will likely opt out. There is a good chance he’s wearing another uniform next year. JBJ is set to be a free agent as well so you need an outfielder who can at least hit .250 and provide some above average defense. Perhaps no one else wants a .220 hitter with superior defense and he’ll come back for a discount.

But Betts …. with one year of arbitration he’s likely a trade chip for pitching or gone as a free agent in 2021. This is the primary reason Dombrowski was let go. As a “lame duck” with one year left on his deal, he wasn’t the guy to handle this key off season.

The key players the Red Sox seem to have in their system seem to be infielders. While they do need a first baseman and second baseman, they are well set at third and short. But they have significant needs in the outfield, the rotation, bullpen and possibly DH. This is a problem that Dombrowski helped create, and like a politician he probably won’t be able to fix the mess he made.

This is a significant off season that will establish whether or not they will be competing with the Yankees or the Orioles for the next decade. We know who won’t be making these decisions, but we don’t know who will.

 

 

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For most of my life the New England Patriots just weren’t very good. They somehow managed to get to two Superbowls but I never expected them to win either of those games.  They showed promise in the late 70’s but Oakland and a few horrible calls took care of that.

For the last fifteen years they have been most successful team, making the playoffs every year but two, six Superbowl appearances and 4 Superbowl victories.

Some people want to “blame” it all on cheating, but that is too easy. In the book Patriot Reign, Michael Holley looks at how this franchise that only frustrated its fans became one that frustrated the rest of the league. He wanted to do a book on Bill Belichick, but at his request it also became about the other coaches, players and the owners who built a champion.

After their first Superbowl victory, Holley decided to write the book and took a year shadowing the team. He sat in meetings and was given pretty much unlimited access (they also did not edit the material). He was disappointed when they failed to defend their title, but the returned to championship form the next year. This was a great “plot” twist and added more material as he could examine how Belichick “rebuilt” the Patriots.

Holley begins his account with Belichick. He offers you the side you don’t see. He doesn’t make him out to be a saint, but simply another side. He does have a sense of humor. He considers press conferences as part of the game plan and prepares for them- what he will and will not say.

“Let’s put it this way: when you’re the head coach, you’re the head coach twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. No matter what happens, it’s on your watch and, to a degree, it’s your problem.”

Belichick’s development as a coach took time. In 1989 when he interviewed for the position as Arizona’s head coach he didn’t quite understand all that it took. He learned from his mistakes in Cleveland, and what kind of owner he wanted to work for if he got the chance again. That is why he picked New England over the Jets (and to get out from Parcells shadow). During his time there under Parcells he would talk with Kraft about any number of subjects (something Parcells didn’t do with Kraft). He knew the man he was, and Kraft knew the man he was. He almost offered the job to Bill instead of Carroll when Parcells left. He faxed the request to talk with Belichick to Parcells before Carroll even had his press conference after his last game as head coach. They have successfully collaborated ever since.

Holley then moved into the reconstruction of the Patriots, including the drafting of Tom Brady. The Patriots were a mess: over the cap, filled with fiefdoms in the locker room and offices. They were like the Red Sox under prior owners. The players were spoiled and didn’t know it.

“Rehbein described him as a winner, a leader with a good attitude. The quarterbacks coach told Belichick that if a decision had to be made between the two, he would give the edge to Brady. Belichick had studied the tapes and felt the same way.”

That first draft was key. But since Holley wasn’t hanging out with them then, he focuses on one player. They were looking for a back up for Drew Bledsoe. Bill and Ernie Adams had listed the characteristics of what they considered the perfect quarterback. They had narrowed the search down to two prospects; Tim Rattay and Tom Brady. So Belichick dispatched his QB coach to work them both out. During the 6th round the draft they saw that Brady’s name was still there. “Brady shouldn’t be there. He’s too good.” They didn’t think Brady would be a starter, much less a superstar when they pulled the trigger on pick number 199. Brady fit the characteristics they listed months earlier.

Soon it was a repeat of his years in Cleveland. The established and (sort of) loved starter was being surpassed by the understudy. In Cleveland it was part of  Belichick’s undoing. In New England circumstances forced his hand so that people weren’t enraged. Bledsoe had the big arm, and big contract, but he was making costly errors- something Bill can’t stand.

“Under Belichick, all Patriot jobs could be classified as temporary. They were earned and held by performance, not status or longevity. Belichick didn’t go out of his way to antagonize stars, nor did he do anything special to accommodate them.”

While externally it was an “easy” transition. The fans were not clamoring for Bledsoe because the team just kept winning. Internally it was a different story as Bledsoe was not a happy camper. Since Rehbein had died the previous summer, Bill was serving as the QB coach. Those were often tense meetings.

“I never want to be on that crawl at the bottom of the screen: ‘Patriots quarterback Tom Brady arrested…’ I never want to look like an ass who let down my family, my teammates, and my organization.”

As an aside, the above quote is part of why I don’t believe Brady would cheat, or ask anyone else to cheat. A fierce, driven competitor to be sure, but one who is also driven by honor. Cheating would make him look like an ass, and that just isn’t an acceptable outcome for him.

Holley takes us to the Superbowl against the Rams. He discusses how the coaching staff dissected their offense. They saw how deception functioned in the offense. Belichick identified their 5 passing concepts, and that Faulk was the most important player out there- no Warner. He boiled it down to applicable concepts for the players. In the midst of this Holley briefly discusses the mysterious Ernie Adams, with whom Belichick went to college.

After the victory against the Rams, Holley became a frequent sight in the complex. As a result, he begins to write about how they evaluate the team, players, free agents and draft picks. This is the real strength of the book. Particularly after the 2002-3 season. In some ways they were drunk on success, thinking they could just turn it on again but they couldn’t because they were too old and too slow. They needed to reload one year after winning it all.

“The essence of Belichick is that he is a problem solver.”

In all of this there are small sections on players like Vinatieri and Fauria, and key figures like Pioli. He talks about the Lawyer Milloy situation which led to the silent feud with Tom Jackson.

All in all this is a very interesting read. You can learn, not only about the Patriots, but football through the anecdotes. You find overall commitments to process that work more often than they don’t. I enjoy learning how people approach their work. That is what make the recent Parcells biography so interesting. I am eager to read Holley’s 2012 follow up, War Room, as a result.

This isn’t a book for children. Unless you are Tony Dungy, football culture is quite colorful and crass. As a result there are more than a few curse words, and slang for sexual acts. This is unfortunate. While it adds to the realism, I wouldn’t want to give it to my son for quite some time.

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