Considering 2010: The Year of Injuries

As a Boston sports fan (since my youth), I found 2010 hard to stomach.  Injuries plagued the Boston teams, derailing potentially good or great seasons.

It all started during Week 17 of the Patriots’ season when Wes Welker blew out his knee.  Surely this did not strike a death blow to the Patriots’ season, but it sure hurt.  There were a number of problems that were exposed in that playoff debacle against the Ravens.  But you have to wonder how a healthy Welker may have changed the outcome.

The Bruins seemed to be rolling along in the playoffs.. They were up 3-0 on the Flyers and seemed in position to move ahead.  But 2 important things happened.  1st, one of Philly’s best players returned to action for Game 4, and in Game 3 David Krejci was injured for the Bruins (another in a long line of Bruins’ seasons ended by the thuggery of the Broadway Bullies).  His loss was pivotal as the Flyers won 4 straight against a Krejci-less Bruins team.

The Celtics were leading the 2010 NBA Finals against the Lakers 3 – 2.  When Perkins blew out his knee, all that changed.  Unable to keep the Lakers off the boards, and expecting too much time from Davis & Wallace, the Celtics withered down the stretch of Game 7.  Perkins’ injury changed the series.

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Considering the Offseason So Far

Since the winter meetings start next week, it is time to talk about some baseball (mostly Red Sox though).

Some of the best off season news is that Joe Morgan was non-tendered by ESPN.  I didn’t mind Jon Miller, but Morgan drove me crazy.  He was a Hall of Fame player, but not a good color man.  They will replaced by the team of Orel Hershiser, Bobby Valentine and Dan Shulman.  Not too wild about Bobby, but Orel provides some great insight in my opinion.

AP Michael Dwyer

I was a bit surprised by the whole Victor Martinez thing.  Not that he left, but some of the details of his departure.  While he was in Boston we occasionally read how he was a catcher- he wanted to catch.  He was willing to play a little firstbase or DH, but he viewed himself as a catcher.  Victor is an elite hitter as a catcher, but only very good as a DH or a first baseman (and a below par fielder).  When you consider the guy who won the Silver Slugger award at the position last year (on a 1 year deal) made $9 million, you see that the price for elite DH’s is not quite as high as elite catchers.  And that is the catch- the Red Sox didn’t want to pay him like an elite catcher when he had shifted to first base or DH full-time.  Position does matter.

Their experience with ‘Tek’s swift offensive decline (and Victor, his conditioning is legendary so it wasn’t that he didn’t take care of his body), left a bad taste in their mouth.  That and the Mike Lowell contract.  They don’t want old guys gone bad being paid big bucks.  They can’t print money like the Yankees can (especially with Fenway no longer being a HOT ticket and NESN ratings plummeting).

During the press conference to announce V-Mart’s good-sized contract it was announced that he was going to back up their catcher and spend most of his time at DH and 1st base.  Huh?  I felt like I got the old switcheroo.  But they are paying him like he’s a elite catcher.  He doesn’t have the thump you want from a DH or 1st baseman.  I will miss his ability to excel against lefties, but I think the Red Sox made a good move.  He was also a great club house guy, who worked well with some of the pitchers (Clay) but struggled with others (is Beckett’s decline coincidental?).  His probable replacement didn’t hit as well, but did a good job with the pitchers.  All starters went into the 7th (and with that bullpen, it was a huge deal).  So the Sox most likely got a defensive upgrade.  Victor worked hard, and showed some improvement but he’s over 30 and his defensive skills won’t drastically improve.  When you have to face the Rays 19 times, and face the possibility of facing the Rangers in the playoffs- you have to throw people out!

AP Photo Jeff Roberson

Of course, now there is talk of the Red Sox picking up Russell Martin via free agency, or swinging a trade with the Dodger for him.  He has been hampered by injury the last few years, but might make a good platoon with Salty. [Update: they have just re-signed, not resigned, Jason Varitek.]

I’ve posted before on the Crawford-Werth debate. Sox officials met with Crawford yesterday.  They plan to meet with Scott Boras (hit the Darth Vader music) about Werth and Beltre before the Winter Meetings.  My BIG concern (really big concern) is the length of contracts mentioned thus far.  Far too long.  I suspect the Red Sox will be quite resistant to commit to anyone that long, especially anyone over 30.

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Considering Deadline Moves

The Red Sox offense has been downright anemic.  Comatose, I tell you.  And with Smoltz, Buccholz and Penny not exactly being consistent, they need to put some runs on that big board in the outfield.  Theo had a mandate, a mission, and it was not impossible.  The Red Sox have a farm system loaded with players to ship out for guys who play in the Bigs now.

Rumors were non-stop.  But today was the day, and when it all came down the Red Sox were probably better but certainly more mystifying.

Victor Martinez, the switch-hitting, catcher-firstbaseman-DH from Cleveland was a coveted player.  He’s been consistent, and consistently good.  He’s got the power to be a middle of the line up hitter to keep pitchers honest.  The problem is how to get him on the field.  Ortiz, having now hit 2 HRs after learning he tested positive for PEDs in 2003, is the everyday DH.  You don’t want to sit him, right?  You don’t sit Youk unless he’s hurt.  Yes, Varitek has been slumping something awful in a return of 2008 ‘Tek at the plate.  But his true value is calling a game.  He needs more time off, and Kotaras can’t seem to hit even as well as ‘Tek.  So Victor will pick up a few games a week there.

The real question is Lowell.  He can still hit, but fielding has been an issue for him.  It’s the lateral movement, which should force the pitchers to adjust so the ball is not smoked down the left side of the field.  Victor will enable the Sox to give Mikey more time.  And he provides great insurance just in case Lowell is put on the DL again.

With Adam LaRoche sitting in that dugout, they decided to ship him out for a different first baseman.  Kotchman comes over in his place.  He doesn’t have much power, but his splits are better than LaRoche’s vs. lefties.  Gotta be, right?  He will most likely play the Dave Stapleton/Doug M. role this season as the late innings defensive replacement.  Unlike LaRoche, he’s also signed for next season.

All this means the Red Sox aren’t “renting” players.  And all they essentially gave up was Masterson and Hagadone.  I’m thinking the other guys don’t make it to the bigs.  Hagadone is the guy I think has real potential.  But Clay, Bowden and especially Bard remain with the team.

The real challenge is going to be for Francona to keep everyone reasonably happy.  They all want to play, and on most teams would play.  But I’m sure Francona would prefer this problem over the one he had in the ALCS last season when Lowell couldn’t play anymore and they really needed his offense.  Now, wake up bats!  No excuses not to challenge the Yankees.  Too bad they couldn’t pick up

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Considering Youkilis’ Rise in Stature & Other Sox Stuff

Head Rub from Papi

An odd thing happened this year.  Kevin Youkilis made a transition from a hard-working, Gold Glove, OBP guy to a player on the brink of stardom.  He is hitting for more power, having equalled his career high in HRs with about 6 weeks to go, and should soon pass his career high in RBIs.  His 2nd spot in the line-up has gone to Dustin Pedroia, and Youk has been batting in the 4-6 range.  With the Ramirez trade, he is emerging as a potent clean-up hitter to protect Big Papi.  Mike Lowell’s injury means Youk is the natural choice to play that role.  And since he finds 3rd base less taxing physically, Youk will have more in the tank for those end of the season at-bats.

Extra Bases provides these stats which should set many a member of Red Sox Nation’s mind at ease.

Kevin Youkilis: batting average with men on base: .429
Manny Ramirez: batting average with men on base: .291 (Sox); .478 (Dodgers)

Youkilis hitting in 7+ innings: .390
Ramirez hitting in 7+ innings: .213 (Sox); .357 (Dodgers)

Youkilis OPS (on-base plus slugging): .948
Ramirez OPS: .786 (Sox); .899 (Dodgers)

I had been considering the Red Sox pitching needs with Wakefield injured and Clay struggling way too much for my comfort.  I had just picked up Byrd in my fantasy league.  He has rediscovered his curve ball, and also thinks he was tipping pitches.  He allows the Sox to put Clay back in the minors to regain his confidence.  This means Wakefield will be replaced by a combination of young guys from the minors.  That leaves 4 reliable starters.  And when Wake is ready to pitch again you could consider giving Lester a rest in early September.  He leads the team in innings pitched.

A funny thing happened around June.  Jon Lester “got it”.  I had a chance to pick him up in June, but decided against it because of his WHIP.  He walked too many guys.  But if you look at his most recent games, he isn’t walking batters.  He is attacking the hitters more (Dice-K may have finally realized that, and hopefully Josh will remember that).  He as emerged as their ace- the guy you can count on for a win, not just a quality start.  If Beckett.2007 returns, the Red Sox are well-situated for a run into November.  Starting pitching dominates in the playoffs, and I’d take the new & improved Lester, Beckett.2007 and an aggressive Dice-K against any other team’s best 3.  Yeah, no Manny- but a bunch of guys who want to prove they can win it without Manny.  And a bunch of guys who know it is about more than one player.

I confess I dumped Ellsbury from my fantasy team too soon.  He was killing me.  He wasn’t hitting, and he wasn’t stealing bases (the main reason I needed him).  He was mired in a horrible slump, and platooning with Coco.  He seems to have regained his stroke which is great for the Red Sox- but not so much for me.  Someone else picked him up off waivers.  The Rookie of the Year honors are no longer in sight, unless he hits .400 and steals 30+ the rest of the way leading the Sox to dominate and claim the best record in baseball (it helps that Longoria is on the DL with a fractured wrist).  Ellsbury seems over his own wrist issues, and has fixed any mechanical flaws that resulted from it.

This may explain Varitek’s struggles at the plate this year- he’s getting divorced.  He probably has a few things on his mind.  Knowing nothing of the details, I am sad.  As a professing Christian, I’d think he’d try to work it out.  But he may have biblical grounds- don’t know.  But it is difficult on the 3 kids regardless of the grounds for divorce.

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Considering a No-Hitter

A huge congratulations to Jon Lester on pitching a no-hitter for his very first complete game.  It was not a perfect game due to an error and 2 walks.  But this is still an amazing accomplishment for the young lefty.  It adds to his expanding resume.  Jon struggled to start the year but has pitched well lately.  Tonight he did something even the great Pedro Martinez never accomplished.

For those who think Jason Varitek is over-rated: he now holds the record for catching the most no-hitters.  It is not an accident, folks.  If memory serves me correctly, the others would be Nomo, Lowe and Buchholz.  That is 2 in 2 seasons for the young Sox pitchers.  Farrell probably deserves a fair amount of credit there too.

Jon helped his cause with 9 strikeouts, which is great to see for the guy.  His K/BB ratio has not been great.  But it was tonight.  He got some help from Jacoby and Youk, 2 other guys who came up through the Sox re-vamped system.  The made some great defensive plays to preserve the no-hitter.  And the Sox hitters provided ample run support. 

This is a feel-good story.  Not just because he had to beat cancer first, but the great bond he now has with Francona.  They shared a long hug after the game.

“He just said he was proud of me,” Lester said. “I’ve been through a lot the last couple of years. He’s been like a second dad to me. It was just a special moment right there.”

Sadly, this meant that righthander Chris Smith didn’t get into a game during his brief call-up.  Due to the double-header and Oki’s wrist issues, he was called up just in case.  But he’ll head back the minors so Masterson can pitch tomorrow night and he’ll be promptly sent down for Bartolo Colon can pitch Wednesday night.

One piece of advice- don’t let Papelbon’s dog near the ball!

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