Considering Two Teams

Who’d of thought he’d be such a huge loss?

Since I can’t find my copy of Four Views of the Book of Revelation in order to cover the 3rd view, I’ll consider sports. I’ve been meaning to work on this post for a few weeks, but haven’t had the free time and mental space. You may think I still don’t have the mental space for it.

I want to consider a similarity between the Boston Red Sox and the Boston Celtics: injuries. The point being how injuries have derailed the last few seasons for both teams. Sports teams are really fragile things. There are times when teams can survive and even thrive during a rash of injuries. The Green Bay Packers did this to win the Superbowl in 2011. Those instances are rare. Most often, the depth of a team is tried and then depleted. Hopes vanish and dreams are squashed.

The Celtics won the NBA title in 2008 and seemed poised to win a few more before the New Big Three fell apart. But injuries have continually derailed that hope, and Celtics fans are disappointed. In 2009 it was Kevin Garnett’s various injuries that left them depleted. Without him they nearly beat the Magic to advance in the playoffs, but it was not to be. A healthy KG, and the Celtics go to the Finals. The next year, KG was not healthy, but was playing. They made it to the Finals against the Lakers. Then, in Game 6, Perkins blew out his knee. His presence in that abysmal Game 7, the film of which should be burned for the sake of both teams, may have made a significant difference. We won’t know. But the Lakers did triumph.

Then there was last year. KG was healthy, but there was the big trade that sent Perkins packing for 2 players. He was still not right, but the emotional toll on the team seemed too big. Both O’Neals had injury problems. Until the playoffs. They put it together after their late season skid. They made it to the conference finals against the arrogant Miami Heat who hope to win 7-8 titles in their imaginations (Father, may it not even be one- oppose the proud!). In a painful moment caught on film, D-Wade pulled down Rondo while falling. Really cheap play, and their series this season against the Pacers shows they are inclined toward the cheap plays. Rondo’s dislocated elbow sunk the Celtics. He valiantly tried to play, but with only one functioning arm, his defense was a liability. That moment dashed the Celtics hopes.

We felt his pain.

The Red Sox are in a similar state of affairs. They won the World Series in 2007. Despite injuries to Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, the Red Sox made it all the way to the AL Championship against new rivals the Rays in their first ever play off appearance. Beckett pitched, but was a shell of himself. So close, but they fell in 7 to the Rays who would get handled easily in the World Series. Oh, for a healthy Beckett or Lowell. Just one would have tipped the scales enough. Just one.

2009 was just a mess for the Red Sox. It is a blur of injuries in the last few months that sunk a promising season. I have erased it from my memory.

2010 looked so promising. In the opening weeks they lost Ellsbury and Mike Cameron for essentially the season. Beltre not only provided power to the line up but single-handedly destroyed the outfield.  The only remaining starting outfielder was J.D. Drew, and we all know he’s good for a few trips to the DL. Daniel Nava and Darnell McDonald came out of nowhere to provide some spark. But then the injuries began to mount up- Youkilis, Pedroia, Martinez. So many injuries to key players- there were done. D-O-N-E.

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Considering the Great Collapse of 2011

This was not the collapse some of the economists have been predicting.  But it felt as devastating.  The team that had the best record in May-August utterly fell apart.  They went from leading the division to not making the playoffs in the course of a month.

There are plenty of people pointing fingers. I’ve read some ridiculous statements.  I’m going to try and put all this together so it makes sense- not sensationalistic headlines.

Issues of payroll are utterly irrelevant.  I don’t care how much a guy is being paid, if he’s hurt he can’t help the team.  So the size of the Red Sox payroll is ultimately irrelevant in this discussion.  You also can’t look at the roster on paper.  You have to see the roster that can actually suit up.

I refuse to point the finger at Theo or Francona.  At the trade deadline the Sox were in an enviable position.  People were largely singing their praises.  Only hindsight is 20/20, so don’t blame them for not having the gift of prophecy.

The seeds of the collapse were sown in Spring Training with Felix Doubront showing up out of shape.  The team had high hopes for him, and he was positioned to be the spot starter like Lester and Buchholz had been before him.  His job was to be ready.  He wasn’t, and suffered a number of injuries.  The depth they had at pitching took its first hit.  And a big hit since they would be forced to rely on the inconsistent Miller and overmatched Weiland.  This would cost them critical games.

It's lonely when you lose

Ryan Kalish’s injury was also pretty big.  Reddick was the guy who ended up filling in for the injured Drew.  He’s streaky, the book says, and he proved it.  He was on fire when he came up.  But down the stretch he struggled horribly.  A healthy Kalish, the heir apparent to right field before the season, would have made a big difference.  But it was not to be (and THAT, my friends, is part of what A-Gon was trying to say).

Diva-K’s injury seemed like a boon at first.  He was horrible!  But if his arm wasn’t messed up, he would’ve been better.  Instead we got a loveable but too old Wakefield and his quest for 200 wins.  It became a source of instability in the rotation.  Combine that with John (S)lackey’s ever deteriorating performance and the 4th and 5th spots on the rotation gave the Sox next to nothing.  Not even innings since no one when deep into games.

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Considering 2010: The Year of Injuries

As a Boston sports fan (since my youth), I found 2010 hard to stomach.  Injuries plagued the Boston teams, derailing potentially good or great seasons.

It all started during Week 17 of the Patriots’ season when Wes Welker blew out his knee.  Surely this did not strike a death blow to the Patriots’ season, but it sure hurt.  There were a number of problems that were exposed in that playoff debacle against the Ravens.  But you have to wonder how a healthy Welker may have changed the outcome.

The Bruins seemed to be rolling along in the playoffs.. They were up 3-0 on the Flyers and seemed in position to move ahead.  But 2 important things happened.  1st, one of Philly’s best players returned to action for Game 4, and in Game 3 David Krejci was injured for the Bruins (another in a long line of Bruins’ seasons ended by the thuggery of the Broadway Bullies).  His loss was pivotal as the Flyers won 4 straight against a Krejci-less Bruins team.

The Celtics were leading the 2010 NBA Finals against the Lakers 3 – 2.  When Perkins blew out his knee, all that changed.  Unable to keep the Lakers off the boards, and expecting too much time from Davis & Wallace, the Celtics withered down the stretch of Game 7.  Perkins’ injury changed the series.

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Considering the 2009 Winter Meetings

The Annual Winter Meetings of MLB will be taking place this week.  The free agent signings have begun, but the biggest fish remain to be caught.  A few minor trades have taken place, but there may be some big ones to emerge as GMs and agents converge.

Going into the meetings, the Red Sox have lost 2 players from last season.  Billy Wagner and Saito have both shifted to the formerly of Boston now Atlanta Braves.  Losing Wagner, a type-A free agent, freed up the possibility of solving Theo’s perpetual SS dilemma by signing free agent Marco Scutaro.

Some people have been critical of this move.  But Theo did not pull another Lugo (or Renteria).  The deal was for only 2 years (not 4), and is affordable by baseball standards.

This allows for one of two things to happen.  Either, Jed Lowrie proves he can stay healthy and productive, or more importantly international free agent signee Iglesias proves he can hit as well as field.  The Red Sox have a solid defender who can get on base and score runs in Scutaro.  Though 2009 was his best year he may benefit from being in a better line up and seeing better pitches.  One of the main needs for the Red Sox has been addressed.

That leaves left field as the biggest problem to be addressed.  Jason Bay, in the eyes of some, is their best bet.  I beg to differ.  Yes, Holliday will cost more money.  But his average production is better than Jason Bay’s.  Even when you look at this past year, Holliday is a better hitter.  Holliday strikes out considerably less than Bay.  This means he puts the ball in play more often which means that runners can advance instead of stifling the offense.  He does hit, on average, into 2 more double plays per season than Bay.  He also hits for a bit more power.  His defense is also better than Bay’s.  Bigger bat, and so is his glove.  Theo should be willing to pay a little more to get a better player.

Much has been made about a possible trade for Padres’ first baseman Adrian Gonazalez.  The Red Sox have some chips in major league ready players that could make it possible.  They can offer Lowrie and Casey Kotchman in addition to a few prospects.  Hoyer’s past with the Red Sox can work for him in this regard.  He knows the best players the Red Sox have in their system.

If they were able to pull that off (thereby getting a 2nd big bat to make it a lethal offense) it would make Lowell expendable.  I hate saying that.  He’s, by all accounts, a great guy and has played well for the Red Sox.  But Youk could shift back to 3rd, improving our defense.

This could be an important series of meetings.  I don’t expect the Red Sox to sign a left fielder, but I do expect that a lot of the groundwork for that signing and any important trades should be laid.  It should be a busy week for Theo.

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Considering Deadline Moves

The Red Sox offense has been downright anemic.  Comatose, I tell you.  And with Smoltz, Buccholz and Penny not exactly being consistent, they need to put some runs on that big board in the outfield.  Theo had a mandate, a mission, and it was not impossible.  The Red Sox have a farm system loaded with players to ship out for guys who play in the Bigs now.

Rumors were non-stop.  But today was the day, and when it all came down the Red Sox were probably better but certainly more mystifying.

Victor Martinez, the switch-hitting, catcher-firstbaseman-DH from Cleveland was a coveted player.  He’s been consistent, and consistently good.  He’s got the power to be a middle of the line up hitter to keep pitchers honest.  The problem is how to get him on the field.  Ortiz, having now hit 2 HRs after learning he tested positive for PEDs in 2003, is the everyday DH.  You don’t want to sit him, right?  You don’t sit Youk unless he’s hurt.  Yes, Varitek has been slumping something awful in a return of 2008 ‘Tek at the plate.  But his true value is calling a game.  He needs more time off, and Kotaras can’t seem to hit even as well as ‘Tek.  So Victor will pick up a few games a week there.

The real question is Lowell.  He can still hit, but fielding has been an issue for him.  It’s the lateral movement, which should force the pitchers to adjust so the ball is not smoked down the left side of the field.  Victor will enable the Sox to give Mikey more time.  And he provides great insurance just in case Lowell is put on the DL again.

With Adam LaRoche sitting in that dugout, they decided to ship him out for a different first baseman.  Kotchman comes over in his place.  He doesn’t have much power, but his splits are better than LaRoche’s vs. lefties.  Gotta be, right?  He will most likely play the Dave Stapleton/Doug M. role this season as the late innings defensive replacement.  Unlike LaRoche, he’s also signed for next season.

All this means the Red Sox aren’t “renting” players.  And all they essentially gave up was Masterson and Hagadone.  I’m thinking the other guys don’t make it to the bigs.  Hagadone is the guy I think has real potential.  But Clay, Bowden and especially Bard remain with the team.

The real challenge is going to be for Francona to keep everyone reasonably happy.  They all want to play, and on most teams would play.  But I’m sure Francona would prefer this problem over the one he had in the ALCS last season when Lowell couldn’t play anymore and they really needed his offense.  Now, wake up bats!  No excuses not to challenge the Yankees.  Too bad they couldn’t pick up

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Considering the 2008 AL Gold Gloves

We Red Sox fans have gotten a bit spoiled in the last few years.  With much better teams, they’ve won a few more Gold Glove awards than in years past.  Dustin Pedroia became the first Red Sox second baseman to win the award since 1972.  Yep, 36 years.

Dustin had more errors (6 to 4) and a slightly lower fielding percentage than the A’s Mark Ellis (.992 to .993).  But he also had 165 more chances than Ellis.  He made great strides in the second half of the season.  Remember, this guy moved to 2nd base not too long ago after playing shortstop most of his life.  That reminds me of Youk, who played 3rd most of his life before having to learn 1st in the big leagues.

Speaking of Youk, he didn’t repeat at first base.  I’ve never thought of Carlos Pena as an outstanding defender- but he’s made improvements.  Better than Youk?  Doubt it, but Kevin spent a fair amount of time at 3rd this season due to Mike Lowell’s injury.  So I completely understand the choice of Pena over Youk.  This is not like last year when I thought Coco got robbed.

Dustin has a good mindset about this.

“I really didn’t think much about it,” Pedroia said on a conference call. “I was kind of still a little upset after the way the season ended, watching the World Series. I’m definitely excited. I’ve been getting text messages all day.”

Here’s hoping this is the first in a number of them for Mighty Mouse.  But he might not be done with awards this season- as he is one of the leading candidates for the AL MVP.  And just think, in May of 2007 most people thought this guy wouldn’t make it in the majors and were ready to give up on him.

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Considering the Red Sox’ Win

Photo by Reuters

Yes, I stayed up well past midnight, though I nearly fell asleep at 9.  I was in the intermediate state where I’m semi-conscious and snoring, but don’t realize it.  This is much to CavWife’s consternation.  I went to bed after Big Papi’s single in the 9th gave the Red Sox another insurance run.  I was confident enough in Papelbon to head to bed.

Keys to the Game

• Jon Lester– he struggled early but worked his way out of trouble repeatedly.  A rare Jed Lowrie error on what would have been the 3rd out allowed the Angels to score their only run.  Since Lackey was shutting the Sox down, it looked like it may have been enough.  But Lester got better as the game wore on, getting his last 7 batters out.  He was still throwing a mid-high 90’s fastball after 100 pitches.  He continues on the path of establishing himself as an ace.
• Jason Bay– after striking out twice, Jason got the Sox first hit with a man on base, driving a Lackey mistake into the left field seats to give the Red Sox the lead in the 6th.  He was 2-4 with 2 extra base hits in his first professional playoff game.  No jitters here!
• Angels’ 8th Inning

1. Jason Ellsbury made a fantastic catch to start the inning.  The Angels get that hit and the inning could have had a different outcome.  He saved rookie Justin Masterson from a messy situation.  His performance at the plate, and basepaths certainly didn’t hurt matters.  With Ellsbury on track the Red Sox are dangerous.
2. Vlad moved like he was 300.  He moves like he is in constant pain.  As he sat on first base I was hoping this would be to our advantage.  It did when he tried to take 3rd on Hunter’s bloop single.
3. Youkilis traps the bloop single and comes up throwing.  It was a great play by Youk to minimize the damage (probably a bit of luck too).  He didn’t give up on the play, and was able to throw out  the creeky Vlad at 3rd by 15 feet.  This kept Masterson out of a serious jam.

Though the Angels dominated the season series, the Red Sox continued their playoff domination of the Angels.  They have now won 10 straight against the Angels dating back to 1986.  They beat them in ’86, ’04 and ’07 on their way to the World Series.  But this series is NOT over- the Angels are a very good team.

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Considering the Red Sox’ Chances

It has been a miserable season for the Red Sox in terms of injuries.  They have been hit hard from the very beginning of the season as Beckett had a back issue.  Those who’ve missed time include Big Papi, Mike Lowell, J.D. Drew, Lugo (thankfully), Dice-K, Wake, Colon (the low-risk gamble didn’t really pay off).

But the Red Sox STILL made the playoffs.  Putting the season in context, I’m content with winning the Wild Card.  The Rays had a great season, and despite some significant injuries, held on to win the division.  They almost had the best record in the AL.  But the Sox did suffer far more significant injuries to key keys.

And now they limp into the playoffs, possibly to be decimated by the Angels just like the White Sox destroyed them in 2005.  Lowell’s hip is still bothering him, and that affects not just his fielding but also his hitting.  Lowell is an important part of this team.  He’ll try to play, but we’ll see if he can deliver. 

J.D. Drew MIGHT be okay.  As someone who has had a bad back the last few years, you just never know how it will feel.  If it holds up, he could be an important contributing member of the squad- like in last year’s playoff drive.

Lugo had another setback, which allows Lowrie to have an opportunity to shine.  We won’t miss he of the weak bat and suspect defense.

Papi’s wrist is still a huge question mark.  It is a day-by-day thing.  When your big bat has such issues it doesn’t bode well.

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Considering Youkilis’ Rise in Stature & Other Sox Stuff

Head Rub from Papi

An odd thing happened this year.  Kevin Youkilis made a transition from a hard-working, Gold Glove, OBP guy to a player on the brink of stardom.  He is hitting for more power, having equalled his career high in HRs with about 6 weeks to go, and should soon pass his career high in RBIs.  His 2nd spot in the line-up has gone to Dustin Pedroia, and Youk has been batting in the 4-6 range.  With the Ramirez trade, he is emerging as a potent clean-up hitter to protect Big Papi.  Mike Lowell’s injury means Youk is the natural choice to play that role.  And since he finds 3rd base less taxing physically, Youk will have more in the tank for those end of the season at-bats.

Extra Bases provides these stats which should set many a member of Red Sox Nation’s mind at ease.

Kevin Youkilis: batting average with men on base: .429
Manny Ramirez: batting average with men on base: .291 (Sox); .478 (Dodgers)

Youkilis hitting in 7+ innings: .390
Ramirez hitting in 7+ innings: .213 (Sox); .357 (Dodgers)

Youkilis OPS (on-base plus slugging): .948
Ramirez OPS: .786 (Sox); .899 (Dodgers)

I had been considering the Red Sox pitching needs with Wakefield injured and Clay struggling way too much for my comfort.  I had just picked up Byrd in my fantasy league.  He has rediscovered his curve ball, and also thinks he was tipping pitches.  He allows the Sox to put Clay back in the minors to regain his confidence.  This means Wakefield will be replaced by a combination of young guys from the minors.  That leaves 4 reliable starters.  And when Wake is ready to pitch again you could consider giving Lester a rest in early September.  He leads the team in innings pitched.

A funny thing happened around June.  Jon Lester “got it”.  I had a chance to pick him up in June, but decided against it because of his WHIP.  He walked too many guys.  But if you look at his most recent games, he isn’t walking batters.  He is attacking the hitters more (Dice-K may have finally realized that, and hopefully Josh will remember that).  He as emerged as their ace- the guy you can count on for a win, not just a quality start.  If Beckett.2007 returns, the Red Sox are well-situated for a run into November.  Starting pitching dominates in the playoffs, and I’d take the new & improved Lester, Beckett.2007 and an aggressive Dice-K against any other team’s best 3.  Yeah, no Manny- but a bunch of guys who want to prove they can win it without Manny.  And a bunch of guys who know it is about more than one player.

I confess I dumped Ellsbury from my fantasy team too soon.  He was killing me.  He wasn’t hitting, and he wasn’t stealing bases (the main reason I needed him).  He was mired in a horrible slump, and platooning with Coco.  He seems to have regained his stroke which is great for the Red Sox- but not so much for me.  Someone else picked him up off waivers.  The Rookie of the Year honors are no longer in sight, unless he hits .400 and steals 30+ the rest of the way leading the Sox to dominate and claim the best record in baseball (it helps that Longoria is on the DL with a fractured wrist).  Ellsbury seems over his own wrist issues, and has fixed any mechanical flaws that resulted from it.

This may explain Varitek’s struggles at the plate this year- he’s getting divorced.  He probably has a few things on his mind.  Knowing nothing of the details, I am sad.  As a professing Christian, I’d think he’d try to work it out.  But he may have biblical grounds- don’t know.  But it is difficult on the 3 kids regardless of the grounds for divorce.

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