Considering the 2009 Winter Meetings

The Annual Winter Meetings of MLB will be taking place this week.  The free agent signings have begun, but the biggest fish remain to be caught.  A few minor trades have taken place, but there may be some big ones to emerge as GMs and agents converge.

Going into the meetings, the Red Sox have lost 2 players from last season.  Billy Wagner and Saito have both shifted to the formerly of Boston now Atlanta Braves.  Losing Wagner, a type-A free agent, freed up the possibility of solving Theo’s perpetual SS dilemma by signing free agent Marco Scutaro.

Some people have been critical of this move.  But Theo did not pull another Lugo (or Renteria).  The deal was for only 2 years (not 4), and is affordable by baseball standards.

This allows for one of two things to happen.  Either, Jed Lowrie proves he can stay healthy and productive, or more importantly international free agent signee Iglesias proves he can hit as well as field.  The Red Sox have a solid defender who can get on base and score runs in Scutaro.  Though 2009 was his best year he may benefit from being in a better line up and seeing better pitches.  One of the main needs for the Red Sox has been addressed.

That leaves left field as the biggest problem to be addressed.  Jason Bay, in the eyes of some, is their best bet.  I beg to differ.  Yes, Holliday will cost more money.  But his average production is better than Jason Bay’s.  Even when you look at this past year, Holliday is a better hitter.  Holliday strikes out considerably less than Bay.  This means he puts the ball in play more often which means that runners can advance instead of stifling the offense.  He does hit, on average, into 2 more double plays per season than Bay.  He also hits for a bit more power.  His defense is also better than Bay’s.  Bigger bat, and so is his glove.  Theo should be willing to pay a little more to get a better player.

Much has been made about a possible trade for Padres’ first baseman Adrian Gonazalez.  The Red Sox have some chips in major league ready players that could make it possible.  They can offer Lowrie and Casey Kotchman in addition to a few prospects.  Hoyer’s past with the Red Sox can work for him in this regard.  He knows the best players the Red Sox have in their system.

If they were able to pull that off (thereby getting a 2nd big bat to make it a lethal offense) it would make Lowell expendable.  I hate saying that.  He’s, by all accounts, a great guy and has played well for the Red Sox.  But Youk could shift back to 3rd, improving our defense.

This could be an important series of meetings.  I don’t expect the Red Sox to sign a left fielder, but I do expect that a lot of the groundwork for that signing and any important trades should be laid.  It should be a busy week for Theo.

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Considering the Red Sox’ Future

Boston.com reports that John Henry cut 1/4 of the staff of his Florida investment firm.  He has taken some big losses in the market (most of us have, except my friend in prison who has been able to make money).

This makes me wonder about the Red Sox payroll.  In recent years they have not kept up with the Yankees’ payroll.  They have tried to integrate young talent, and have made some good deals to keep young talent at reasonable prices.  But where the Yankees have continued to expand their payroll the Red Sox have not.  The Red Sox no longer have the 2nd highest payroll, but are slowly sliding down the scale.

Our New LF?

As the Red Sox sought to extend Jason Bay, they just couldn’t seem to get it done.  They didn’t offer the money he wanted, and possibly the number of years.  Now that he is on the market, they probably won’t be able to afford him with suitors like the Yankees (unless they get Holliday), Mets and Giants interested in adding a big bat (4 teams, 2 big bats, you do the math).

Josh Beckett has approached the Red Sox about an extension.  But Peter Gammons notes that he may want Sabathia-type money, which the Red Sox are loathe to give a pitcher over 30.  If they can’t compete in 2010, they may trade him (or trade him to compete in 2010).  Otherwise, they may have to let him go and use the compensatory picks.

John Henry’s financial troubles may mean some cost-cutting down on Yawkey Way.  It may mean that the Red Sox can’t compete with other big market teams for top free agents and international players for a few years.  It just makes we wonder, is our ride of success just about over?

Case in point- Jeremy Hermida.  His role on the 2010 Red Sox was not defined in the press conference.  They talked about his potential, the potential that has had them interested in him for years but which has not turned into reality.  Of course, in Florida he has not been surrounded by good to great players that offer any protection (Hanley Ramirez’ stats truly are amazing in THAT line-up).  Truth be told, I was one of those sucked in by his “potential” a few years ago, drafting him in a fantasy league.  It was supposed to be his breakout year.  Theo is hoping this turns into his breakout year in a park suited to this swing and a team that might need him to swap sides of the field.  Yes, the Sox may still spend money since they generate so much money, but they may not be willing to spend the $18-20 million/year necessary to bring back Bay or lock up Holliday.  So Hermida may be a low-cost option in LF.  He might not, but he might.  Then again, he might be trade bait, as Harold Reynolds thinks.

The key signal to which way the Red Sox go is not just the free agent market, but whether they can get the Padres to trade Adrian Gonzalez.  He would be a monster, people think, at Fenway.  But after the uncertainty of whether or not ownership will use him to rebuild, there is the price to be paid and whether or not a suitable deal can be made.  Keep watching.

Update: MLBTradeRumors speculates that the Red Sox sign Jason Bay, oft-injured Rich Harden, Mark Scutaro, and Cuban hurler Aroldis Chapman.  I’m not sure I see them spending that much money, but I’d welcome most of those moves.

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Considering the All-Star Game

I didn’t watch all of the MLB All-Star Game.  CavWife wanted to watch In Plain Sight, one of the summer shows we watch.  We discovered, much to our dismay, that our new DVR didn’t record the show Sunday night.  The record light was on… so we are mystified.  So we went to the USA website and watched it on-line.  Our new, higher speed internet worked much better than our previous attempts to watch episodes of Burn Notice we missed.  We upgraded to digital cable and higher speed internet to get the digital phone service.  It was $1 more than with standard cable.  We save about $50 over our combined internet/cable & Verizon bill.  So it made sense to bundle it.

While we watched the show- interrupted periodically by a child with issues- I kept my eye on the never-ending pre-game festivities.  Since this was the final year of Yankee Stadium, they pulled out all the stops.  Lots of Yankee hall of famers.  Not to be outdone by the Red Sox extravaganza back in ’99, they trotted out a feeble King George.  It was touching to see the warmth Yogi had for him.  But I didn’t notice any of today’s players around the league embracing him like they did Ted Williams.  But, I wasn’t engrossed so it could have happened.

After the show, CavWife got ready for bed so I actually watched the game.  When I went to bed, it looked like Matt “Trade Bait” Holliday might be the MVP for his solo shot.  It was 2-0 and the AL was doing … nothing.  I figured it was over and went to bed much in need of rest.

As it turns out, the Papel-flap was a non-issue.  Mariano Rivera did not get a chance to close the game.  But his pitching was important as the AL came back to put the game into extra innings.  The NL blew 2 save opportunities.  And in a beautiful twist of fate, or irony, the oft-maligned J.D. Drew -in his first All-Star game- got the last laugh, belting a 2 run homerun and stealing a base to lead the AL to victory.  The Red Sox player won the MVP award.

The controversy erupted on ESPN, again.  The great part is they’ll give the Brett Favre story a rest.  A few years ago the controversy was “how in the world can they have a tie in the All-Star game”.  Now the controversy is “how could they make those guys who pitched Sunday pitch since the game went to 15 innnings.”  Zzzzzzz.  Didn’t their managers know they were going to the All-Star game?  Did it shock them to realize they might have to actually pitch?  Hello?!

But I’m glad I didn’t try to watch this thing.  I didn’t need to be up until 2 am.  I am glad the AL gets homefield advantage again (I like that the games count!), and that one of the Sox was a key player in the game.  Great to see Pedroia and Youk in their first All-Star games.  These guys are known for hustle and grit.  They face every game and at bat as if it will be their last.  They leave it all on the field.  They will probably be in a few more of these games.

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