Considering the Red Sox 2019 Season

Last night the Red Sox were officially eliminated from the playoffs. They are an 80-something win team after a dominant 2018 season that saw them win over 100 games and the World Series by beating the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers.

What in the world happened????

Much of this falls on Dombrowski, which is why he is no longer employed by the Red Sox. I didn’t say all, but much. There there is much for which he is responsible. He didn’t play, but he didn’t get the right players for them to defend their title.

He did have salary restrictions, but the problem was how he handled those restrictions. While the Sox ain’t broke, they don’t want to experience increasing sanctions, like draft picks for exceeding the cap.

The Bull Pen

Dombrowski let both Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel walk. I understand, they wanted more money and the Red Sox couldn’t afford them. They didn’t have great seasons. Kelly had an ERA over 4.60 this season. Kimbrel held out and has probably spent more time on the IL than on the mound. I had my doubts about him last season. He was starting to give me heart trouble by putting guys on.

The problem really is that Dombrowski didn’t replace them. He used “internal” options, meaning guys who had experience as a closer. Oh, and success. Unless you want to include the junk heap guys who spent most of the time in the minors.

The result? Only the Baltimore Orioles had a lower save percentage. Too often saves were blown, leads lost and comebacks squandered. It doesn’t how many runs your offense puts up if your pitching gives up more. This was the sad tale of the 2019 Red Sox.

The Rotation

One of the two signings by Dombrowski was to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi after his impressive post-season saving performance. He has a long-term record of injuries and inconsistency to go along with that fastball. He gave the Sox plenty of both, and they should expect to see more since they signed him for 4 years and there are 3 to go. This doesn’t bode well, and is a big part of the hole that Dombrowski dug moving forward.

So, the Red Sox entered the season with 4 starting pitchers who had recent histories of injuries. What happened? E-Rod who has battled injures and inconsistency finally became the pitcher we wanted him to become.

The aforementioned Eovaldi, Price and Sale spent large portions of the season on the IL instead of the pitching mound getting outs. Their inability to perform wore out a bull pen that wasn’t very talented to begin with. Porcello was healthy but had probably his worst season ever.

All that falls on Dombrowski who mismanaged the offseason. They have tons of money tied up in starting pitching that has proven to be largely unreliable. They will have to replace Porcello. Hopefully whomever they pick can do better than his 5.56 ERA at considerably less money. But they will need depth in the system which they didn’t have this season.

Dombrowski’s other “big” move was to bring back Steve Pearce who ended up with a whopping 89 at bats this season. His injury made way for Michael Chavis who provided some power when he played. Chavis was a bright spot much of the time.

The Offense

The offense was potent once again. Betts was less aggressive, and regressed significantly. There were only glimpses of his greatness at the plate. This was countered by Rafael Devers’ emergence as a force to be reckoned with going forward.

The Future

The problem is J.D. Martinez has a player option and will likely opt out. There is a good chance he’s wearing another uniform next year. JBJ is set to be a free agent as well so you need an outfielder who can at least hit .250 and provide some above average defense. Perhaps no one else wants a .220 hitter with superior defense and he’ll come back for a discount.

But Betts …. with one year of arbitration he’s likely a trade chip for pitching or gone as a free agent in 2021. This is the primary reason Dombrowski was let go. As a “lame duck” with one year left on his deal, he wasn’t the guy to handle this key off season.

The key players the Red Sox seem to have in their system seem to be infielders. While they do need a first baseman and second baseman, they are well set at third and short. But they have significant needs in the outfield, the rotation, bullpen and possibly DH. This is a problem that Dombrowski helped create, and like a politician he probably won’t be able to fix the mess he made.

This is a significant off season that will establish whether or not they will be competing with the Yankees or the Orioles for the next decade. We know who won’t be making these decisions, but we don’t know who will.

 

 

Read Full Post »

Considering the 2017 Red Sox

It was a long, frustrating season. There were many times I wanted to give up on them. Mostly I wanted to fire Farrell. But the frustration of this season doesn’t lie at just at Farrell’s door.

1. The Missing Papi. Yes, his play was missed. More than that was probably his presence. Some of those young players needed him in tough times. It is hard to know but I suspect things would be different in the clubhouse controversies.
2. Clubhouse Controversies. Price was seriously out of control. The fans just want you to perform as you have for years. It really isn’t complicated. But he thinks he can act like Ted Williams. I understand him being frustrated with the media, but not the fans. I didn’t think he was a good fit here, and still don’t think he was. He treatment of Eck was similar to Manny’s antics that got him gone. Part of me hopes he’s gone. Pedroia struggled with leadership during the Machado events, and not reigning in Price.
3. Injuries. There were the guys who missed serious time, especially the starting pitchers. Stephen Wright missed the season. Rodriquez was not right even when he was pitching. Price was in and out. Fister actually had some good starts, but that you had to rely on him was crazy. But when your depth keeps getting hurt or can’t throw strikes this is what happens. But it was the injuries that hampered guys: Bogaerts, Betts and Moreland all had injuries that put them in prolonged slumps. Pedroia was having a good season before his knee became too much of a problem. Hanley’s shoulder had an unknown effect on his play.
4. Sloppy Baseball. There were too many “error repeaters”, guys who kept making the same mistake. I love Benintendi but he ran into too many outs. He wasn’t the only one. There was some sloppy defense at times.
5. Farrell, Farrell, Farrell. He “protected” players. Fine. But he needed to correct players. He didn’t need to protect Price in the Eck incident. He made so many mysterious moves. He’d play guys who struggled for guys who were playing well. Too many mystifying moves, and not just in the playoffs. You play Devers and put Marrero in late for defense. But Farrell plays Marrerro based on the “match ups” despite the actual statistics that screamed, play Rafael.
6. Dombrowski. The Sale move was great. Moreland played well, but this team had no power. The pen needed help due to injuries from last season, which should have been addressed. His was a mixed report card.
7. The B’s regressed. Some of it was injuries. Some was struggling to get out of funks or the sophomore wall. I think we’ve seen the best of Bradley. Betts and Bogaerts had injuries and should be better next year. Benintendi worked through the problems and likely learned some important lessons. But their missing production was a serious problem for this team.

This will be an interesting off season. It began with a bang. Finally Farrell was fired. He was never Dombrowski’s man. But you don’t fire a guy who just survived cancer. They should have let him go after last year’s sweep and kept Luvollo. But he lost the clubhouse in addition to the bonehead moves that probably had Dombrowski throwing darts at his picture.

1. New manager. Looks like it will be either Alex Cora, Brad Ausmus, or Ron Gardenhire. I’m surprise Gabe Kapler isn’t in there. Of those three, I only want Cora. I’ve wanted him as manager for a few years now. He’s smart, articulate, gets analytics and builds relationships. He seems to have good EQ. Gardenhire apparently has good EQ as well, but is old school and doesn’t like the analytics that Farrell seemed to ignore or his book was a  few years old. Ausmus has a low EQ and struggles in dealing with the press. We don’t need Farrell part 2. Cora, please. Whomever it is they need to build a good staff. Perhaps Butter got complacent but they didn’t seem to fix fielding problems. Too many hitters had prolonged slumps and Porcello never quite got his mechanics figured out this year. That shouldn’t be happening. Update: Gardenhire was hired by the Tigers.
2. New slugger. I’d like J.D. Martinez, but that would necessitate a move like trading Bradley. Both Benintendi and Betts can play center field. Bradley may help get you pitching. Hosmer is another option and he’d fill the hole at first. But they need a solid veteran slugger who can help change the club house culture like in 2013.
3. Surgeries have begun. Ross was first, and the least significant. E-Rod’s surgery was overdue and hopefully will resolve his issue with the balky knee so he can trust it again. Hanley’s shoulder surgery was probably overdue. Perhaps he returns to a fearsome hitter instead of the shell of himself he was this year. Pedey should have one on his knee but it may be a problem going forward. This does create some short-term issues. E-Rod won’t be ready to begin 2018. This means you need Wright and Price healthy and ready to go. Assuming you keep Price after sitting him down and telling him he’s been an ass. Who knows when and for how long Pedroia will be healthy. They need a good back-up plan for him. Nunez would be a great one, if you can convince him to come back.
4. Good-bye Chris Young. He was pretty useless this year. Does this mean Castillo gets another chance? Or does Brentz finally get a chance? Brentz may add some power to the line up. If you go for Martinez, you have Sam Travis ready to play first. He’s not really a power bat, at least yet. Unless you want to move Devers there instead of Chavis. Devers and Chavis would give you 2 power bats at the corners. I’m not sure Chavis is ready for the big leagues, so now you need Devers at 3rd with Marrero as the utility/defensive replacement. Tough decisions, to be sure.All of this is why you need a manager who can work with the young players, unlike Farrell.
5. 6-man modified rotation? Having Wright is a big advantage if he’s healthy. He could give you one start per starter per month. Sale could get some rest throughout the season so he’s ready to dominate when you need him too. Not May but September and October. In between those irregular starts, the knuckleballer can provide long relief. Now that Farrell is gone he won’t be a pinch runner and messing up his shoulder on slides.
6. The Unexpected Moves. Dombrowski can’t stand pat. They barely beat the Yankees, but that doesn’t mean they are the better team. The Series-bound Yankees have figured out what the Red Sox haven’t in 2 tries: how to win in the post-season. Their many young stars are progressing. The Sox have to get better too.

This is a crossroads kind of off-season. They will either get better or worse. If better they will be in contention for championships. Worse, and the next few years will be just as frustrating as this one, or more. Now is when Dombrowski has to earn his keep.

Read Full Post »