Considering the 2016 Red Sox: Opening Day Edition

Opening Day is nearly here. While the Red Sox open the season in Cleveland, I’ll be attending the D’Backs home opener. Hopefully I will see Zach Greinke pitch well, and that dominant offense from Spring Training (but it was only Spring Training). But let’s focus on the Red Sox.

The Promise:

This would be the young guys who are playing an increasing number of positions for this Red Sox team.

Xander Bogaerts is on the brink of being an All-Star. Last year his defense was much improved. As was his hitting. The only thing he lacks at this point is power. If he can start driving the ball a little more, they could have a superstar on their hands.

Mookie Betts has been shifted to right field to make way for JBJ. He was a very good center fielder last year, and hit very well the second half of the season. He has the arm for right field. This spring (caveat: it’s spring) he has displayed more power. Mookie is an all-star in the making and seems to have the charisma to make the leap to superstar.

Jackie Bradley Jr. showed some of the promise for about a month or so. That would be as a hitter. His defense is Gold Glove level. It was his offense that has kept him bouncing between Boston and Pawtucket. He hit well in Spring training, again (and again it is spring). We’ll see if this is the year he puts it all together for a season.

Travis Shaw is our late addition to this group. He wasn’t expected to be named the starter at third base. In part because he played first base. He probably hoped to be the back up at first and third. Hanley has stayed healthy, so far. But the Panda is like Po and seemingly expanding in girth every time you see him. That is great if you are an animated Panda. Not if you are the third baseman of the Red Sox and need to play defense. It was Shaw’s hitting this spring, and Pablo’s lack thereof that has Travis starting the season in the field at the hot corner. He put things together late last season during a call-up. He opened some eyes by flashing more power than expected. Will he maintain or become the next Will Middlebrooks? Only time will tell, as Asia sang.

Blake Swihart will start as the primary catcher. He was rushed to Boston due to injuries to Vazquez and Hannigan. He struggled offensively at first, but improved as the season wore on. While he is improving as a catcher, the main draw is his hitting.

Christian Vazquez starts the season on the DL as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. He is the emerging as a great defensive catcher. We’ll see if his throwing returns. It was very hard to steal on Christian. He is also great at framing pitches and calls such a good game that he’s the guy pitchers want calling the game. If he can hit .260 …. he’ll have a long career. But will it be with the Red Sox? Can they keep both Christian and Blake? Will Blake move to another position (I’d say first, but Sam Travis is due in the next year or so)? Perhaps Blake will be moved to get pitching. There are many questions for this position, but these are good questions not bad questions.

Eduardo Rodriguez begins the year on the DL after tweaking his knee during a drill in spring training. He did well last year, when he wasn’t tipping pitches. He supposedly made the necessary changes. He looks very promising. But so did Felix Doubront. Everyone is high on him, and he wants to learn about pitching from Price. Hopefully we will be ready to pitch soon.

I’m not sure if Brock Holt fits here, but I’m not sure where to put him. He is their super-utility player who has suddenly become their starting left fielder against righties. He experienced a down turn at the end of last season. Was it fatigue? Had pitchers figured him out? Time will tell. This may have a ripple effect should anyone in the infield gets hurt. Perhaps they will move him to the infield and play the 4th outfielder.

Shaw and Holt are the beneficiaries of Dumbrowski’s decree that Farrell play the best players, not necessarily the highest paid players. Apparently Farrell didn’t believe him. Dumbrowski is dealing with a bunch of players that Cherington signed. The ghosts of the Cherington era haunt Fenway. Dumbrowski will try to exorcise some, but may have to wait some out.

The Foundation

Dustin Pedroia is bouncing back from yet another injury. His defensive ratings dropped last year, but his power came back. He still makes amazing plays and is fun to watch. The question is how many games he’ll play.

This is the David Ortiz farewell tour. Spring Training is sort of superfluous to him. He’ll probably hit over 30 HR and drive in about 100 RBI, if healthy. It will be sad to see him, and his production. For now, he continues to anchor the heart of the line up.

David Price is the new ace, and should be for some time. He’s also the mentor for the young pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez. This is the guy Dombrowski wanted, and got. I’m glad the Red Sox don’t have to face him anymore.

Craig Kimbrel is the new closer. He has played long enough to not be part of the promise for the future. He should help stabilize the bull pen after it was used, abused and misused last year. The first problem was starters getting knocked out early and often. Due to injuries and failures they went through more options at closer than I can count or remember. With the re-vamped bull pen they could shorten games. This took a hit with Carson Smith’s injury.

The Problems & Question Marks

There are just too many of these.

Hanley Ramirez is untested as a first baseman. So far it has been far better than left field was. His hitting is also a big question mark. He was once a great hitter. He hit well in April, and then hit a wall. The shoulder injury hampered his swing the rest of the year.  We are very uncertain if he will be productive this year.

Pablo Sandoval has potentially eaten himself out of a starting job. I’m not sure what the Red Sox should do. He may have an eating disorder as some have theorized. That would necessitate treatment, but he’d need to want it. If he loses some weight, and Shaw struggles, he may find his way back onto the field. Or he may be traded if the Padres want to take a chance on him. One of the pictures I saw from Spring Training was Pablo fielding ground balls. In this shorts pocket was what appeared to be a cell phone. A large one. I’m not doing fielding drills with my phone. This indicates to me that some priorities are out of whack.

Rusney Castillo was a big risk by Cherington and company. He hasn’t panned out, yet. He has struggled with the fastball. He may go back to the minors since he lost his spot to Brock Holt. He needs at bats to develop his offense. Now we watch, and wait.

Clay Buchholz is an enigma. When he’s having a difficult season, you want him to get hurt. When he’s having a fantastic season, he inevitably gets hurt. He’s like a yo-yo alternating good and horrible seasons. He started well last year before the injury bug bit him, yet again.

Rick Porcello has had a frustrating stint with the Red Sox. Dumbrowski dealt him away from Detroit, and is stuck with him again. I wonder if he groaned. Rick had a strong finish to his season. So far the early season Porcello who gave up home runs has been pitching. But it is Spring Training and guys are working on pitches rather than pitching to win. We’ll see which Porcello shows up.

Joe Kelly is another enigma. How many can one team have on it’s pitching staff??? He dominated at the end of the season with a new approach to pitching. If THAT guy shows up, things look good for him, and therefore the Red Sox.

Koji Uehara is getting older. He is no longer the closer after struggling some. Junichi Tazawa struggled due to overuse last season. Has he recovered ,or is he damaged goods? Big question.

 

This could be a very good season, or a very bad one. While there is much promise, there are also some big question marks and concerns. It really could go either way. This is a season in which they may be more prone to injury than normally. Now we just watch and wait.

 

 

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Considering Red Sox Pitching Changes

The Red Sox have only made one move so far this off season. That would be the trade for Padres and Braves closer Craig Kimbrell. He is exactly what they needed in the bull pen. He came “cheaper” than Chapman, in terms of players going in the other direction, and will belong to the Red Sox for more than one season (Chapman will be free agent after the 2016 season). He was pricey in that they lost 4 lower level prospects with tons of upside. Potential is not always realized, however. There have been plenty of prospects that don’t pan out like everyone hoped. This is not the dealing away of Jeff Bagwell for a rental who doesn’t even get you into the playoffs. But he didn’t cost them their best and most electrifying prospects: Moncada, Devers, and Benintendi. Or the guys read;y to make the jump to the big leagues: Owens, and Johnson.

The Kimbrell trade gives you an elite closer who throws high 90’s heat. The coveted power arm at the back end of the bullpen. This takes the pressure off of Koji, who has struggled with injuries the last 2 seasons and is 40 years old. Koji doesn’t need to close, and can provide protection as well as a dependable guy to pitch in the 8th. This creates bullpen depth they sorely lacked last year. Tazawa is pushed to the 7th.

This also means that Joe Kelly remains in the rotation. He showed great improvement after returning from the DL. If he can be THAT guy, the rotation will be much better and save the bullpen unlike last year. The lousy starts by Kelly and Porcello, and occasionally Miley, devastated the bullpen.

The main question is who will the Red Sox sign to be the ace. Finishing in last the previous 2 seasons sent a strong message to John Henry about the need for an ace ASAP. E Rod may be an ace one day. Maybe. Or he could be the 2nd coming of Felix Doubrant whom we thought would be the 2nd coming of Jon Lester by finally figuring a few things out so he could go deep in game. Nope. Felix was not in the majors last I knew. He just got worse.

Clay has ace caliber stuff, but can’t stay healthy. I pity the fool who relies on Buchholz Available aces tend to be older, unless you want to pay the king’s ransom for them. It worked for Pedro. But most young guys like Grey are not available, or their teams are greedy. A few are untouchable, only a few. But guys like Owens and Johnson and Shaw won’t get a trade done. Besides Shaw may end up playing first in 2017, and will back up the increasingly fragile Hanley Ramirez as he takes over first base (crossing fingers).

Dombrowski indicates that they will most likely get that #1 starter in free agency. This leaves us to consider Price, Cueto, Greinke and Jordan Zimmerman. These are the guys, and even Zimmerman is borderline as the #3 pitcher on the Nationals. He also had a lousy free agent year. Health, pressure, lack of confidence? I’m not sure I want to spend ace money on Zimmerman. Or give him ace responsibilities. With Porcello at $20 million they could quickly have an over-priced and under-performing rotation.

As Owens and Johnson develop and prove they can perform in the big leagues, they can force the Red Sox to trade Miley (he’s on a good contract and is probably the most tradable of Porcello, Kelly and Miley).

So, we are down to Price, Cueto and Greinke. The first 2 were traded during the season, so they were not eligible for qualifying offers. This means that only Greinke will cost them a draft pick. A 12th pick, kind of draft pick.

This is a high price. However, it may be worth paying. Greinke has dealt with his social anxiety issues. He is a thinking man’s pitcher. He is big on advanced analytics, and got Bannister, now a Red Sox employee, into them while they both pitched for Kansas City. The connection with Bannister may be important. Not being a a power pitcher may mean that Zach is able to dominate longer, much lack Maddox. He may be the best value over the life of the his contract. He has pitched in the AL, obviously, though it has been awhile. He has seemed to resolve his post season issues.

All the “experts” and GMs believe that the Red Sox will sign Price. Earlier they all though he’d head to the Cubs to be reunited with Maddon rather than pursue a reunion with Dombrowski. I’m sure he could play with Ortiz for a season, but I’m not sure he wants to play for Red Sox fans who have been a bit hard on him. While his post season record is pretty lousy, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t pitched well. His WHIP is slightly higher, which doesn’t quite explain the significantly higher ERA. Oh, the joys of a smaller sample size and the vagaries of post season play. He has pitched most of his career in the AL East when it was one of the best divisions in baseball. He can pitch in the division.

Price is more of a power pitcher, which means that unless he’s Nolan Ryan, he will not live up to the last years of what looks to be a huge contract. He is likely to be the guy John Henry fears or feared.

Cueto has that Luis Tiant odd delivery thing going for him. What he doesn’t seem to have going for him is a bum elbow. There are some serious questions about that elbow. He does seem to be a good leader, talking pitching with other starters on the bench during games. He’s the alpha dog type you want. He may be cheaper due to the question about the elbow. You could try the John Lackey maneuver with him- add a year at league minimum if he has surgery on that arm.

I am glad I’m not Dumbrowski, and I don’t have to make that choice, and live with the consequences.

Update: Zimmerman signed with the Tigers for about $22 million a year for 5 years.

The D’Backs are pushing hard for Cueto.

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